TIP271: AN INTRINSIC VALUE ASSESSMENT

W/ DAN FERRIS

30 November 2020

On today’s show we talk to valuation expert Dan Ferris about determining the value of a company in the mineral industry.

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IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

  • Why it’s so difficult to invest in mining stocks
  • How to build a relationship with the management with a small-cap company, why it might not be advantageous.
  • How to understand the market for mining royalties
  • How to estimate the intrinsic value of Altius Minerals
  • Ask The Investor’s Podcast: Do you prefer to focus more on business or picking individual securities?

TRANSCRIPT

Disclaimer: The transcript that follows has been generated using artificial intelligence. We strive to be as accurate as possible, but minor errors and slightly off timestamps may be present due to platform differences.

Preston Pysh 0:00
On today’s show Stig and I dig into the valuation of a single company to learn about important considerations when investing in businesses within the mining sector. Our guest expert is Dan Ferris from Extreme Value and he comes with over two decades of experience in financial valuation. So without further delay, here’s our assessment of Altius Minerals with Dan Ferris.

Intro 0:26
You are listening to The Investor’s Podcast where we study the financial markets and read the books that influence self-made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected.

Stig Brodersen 0:46
Welcome to today’s show! My name is Stig Brodersen. And as always, I’m here today with my co-host, Preston Pysh. And as we said in the introduction, we are here with Dan Ferris. Thank you so much for taking the time out of your busy schedule to join us here today, Dan.

Dan Ferris 1:03
Oh, it’s my pleasure! I’m very happy to be here.

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Stig Brodersen 1:05
Thank you for saying so. And we are very excited to talk to you today and learn about how to value mining stocks, especially Altius Minerals. But before we talk about the specific stock pick, could you please tell our listeners, who do not have experience with mining stocks, what makes the mining sector so different than other sectors?

Dan Ferris 1:24
Just straight to your question. The mining sector is rough. It’s a rough business. And I actually don’t like to invest in regular mining companies because they are extremely capital intensive before you earn a single penny of revenue to build a mine that’s worth building. And we’re talking probably a couple of billion dollars, usually. Maybe several billions. So you know, up front, before one penny of revenue, right? And then, the process in fact, you know, from discovering the mineral prospect, to getting the permits, and getting everything built, and getting the financing, etc., etc., it can take a couple of decades. So you know, it’s, it’s highly cyclical, you know? For that reason, over a couple decades prices go up and down, and up and down, and projects are on and off. And it’s just, you’re never setting the price. You’ve got all these upfront costs and fixed costs and things, and you’ve got to take whatever price the market gives you. It’s just, it’s kind of Warren Buffett’s nightmare, you know? The mighty business. That’s why he never wants anything to do with it. And I don’t blame him. I never want to own a mining company and neither does Altius Minerals for that matter.

Stig Brodersen 2:38
Yeah, interesting you would say that. And I definitely look forward to the second part of the interview where we’ll be specific in talking about that. But we haven’t really been covering mining stocks too much here so far in the show. And one of them is, what you just said, you know, we are founded in Warren Buffett. That’s our base, and he would probably run away screaming for most if not all mining stocks. Since we have you with us here today, Dan, we would like to dig a bit more into the mining sector as a whole, and then we’re going to talk about royalties. More specifically about this stock, and why it’s related, but perhaps not a core part of the mining industry here. But you know, all sectors have specific vocabulary. For instance, here on the show, we’ve talked about the retail sectors multiple times. And if you look into the retail industry, you have your own vocabulary, you know? You talk about the same cell store. There’s so many different terms you would use for that industry. Now, as mentioned before, we haven’t really been doing too much research into mining stocks. So could you please introduce some of the concepts that we as investors need to understand to begin to research in mining stocks?

Dan Ferris 3:50
Okay. So financially, it’s all the same stuff, right? You know, financial statements are financial statements in any, in any business. And in any business, you want something that you can regularly pull cash out of, you know, that literally makes more money than they know what to do with it. So if you’re investing in mines, actual mining companies, you will want to know the state of the industry. If you are investing in a company that owns copper mine, you will want to know the global state of the copper mining industry, you know? Where are we in the cycle? How does your mining company compare to other mining companies in terms of the margins and the cash costs per pound of copper? That’s extremely important. With any mine commodity, you know? Cash cost per ounce of gold per pound of copper, etc. Ton of iron ore. You always want to know those things. And it can be very complicated getting inside of them and, and figuring them out. Just figuring out what they’re really paying to pull an ounce of metal or a pound of metal or a ton of metal out of the earth can get really tricky. It can be difficult. So that’s something that’s a little different than other industries. Those are some things that are a little bit different. And in the mining industry as in some other industries, for example, just another example that comes off the top of my head is something like banking or insurance, you really want to understand the management team well, like really well. You really want to know who they are, and where they’ve been, and what they’ve done, and what kind of people they are. Especially, the smaller the company, the better you know those people because as we probably all know there’s a lot of shady stuff in the mining world. There just is, and you have to accept that as sort of not a cost of doing business, but a cost of doing your research as an investor, certainly. You got to get around that and you got to know people.

Preston Pysh 5:45
So Dan, like you said earlier, miners are very cyclical. So how do you personally read the cycles?

Dan Ferris 5:52
There are basically three places in any cycle, right? There’s the extreme top, the extreme bottom, and the middle. I stay away from trying to read the middle. And you, you know, you kind of know when you’re getting near those extreme tops and extreme bottoms. At extreme tops, everybody on Earth, you know, your, your brother in law is calling you and saying, “Hey! You know? I just found this coal mining stock. It’s gonna to go up, you know, a 1000% next week.” So it’s just anecdotally, it’s really not very different from looking at overall cycles in, you know, an economy, a country’s economy or any stock market index or anything else. But trying to put too fine a point on it is probably a mistake. And believe me, if you’ve been around the block at all, you know what those moments like late 2015, early 2016, you know, the bottom of the cycle look like and smell like. Nobody can get anything financed. Nobody wants to hear about mining. They refused to even think about it. So for me, tracking cycles, I want to see extremes. I don’t even think very much about them in between. But whether it’s in the overall stock market, the S&P 500 or the mining cycle or anything, man, the extremes just hit you over the head. It’s hard to miss them.

Stig Brodersen 7:13
And for those of us, who’ve never been hit in the head by one of those, you know, clear signs, you know? They just, you know, started to look into it. What is a clear sign of something that is extreme?

Dan Ferris 7:26
When the guys who are spending 1500 dollars to mine an ounce of gold or making money because gold is 1900 dollars an ounce. That is a pretty clear sign. When anybody can finance any piece of garbage and moves pasture anywhere on earth that you know darn well will never become a mine because it’s in the wrong place, and the geology is screwy, you know? It kind of becomes obvious. That’s the hit in the head moment. And as I said, you know, when people who are not familiar with mining are calling you on the phone, and sending you emails, and saying, “Wow, I got this great mining deal!” When everybody wants to do it, you sort of know it. And that’s when you start trimming back your positions and heading for the exits.

Stig Brodersen 8:12
Whenever we are talking about an industry being cyclical, it’s always interesting to consider whether or not we see secular trends.

Dan Ferris 8:21
Yeah, I mean at this point we’re looking at a major change in the way people want their electricity generated, right? Lots of people, they just hate cold. They hate it. And in Canada, they’re going to shut down all the coal mines in 2030. So, you know, they better come up with something else. And a lot of that something else will be so called “renewable sources.” You know, the solar, and the wind, and the hydro. That’s something that once you spend that money, especially like hydro, once you spend that money and the thing is going, it can go for a very, very, very long time. There’s no reason to kind of go back the other way. That’s secular. That’s, that’s gonna, that’s kind of one directional. That’s a big one that affects mining, I think. Otherwise, since the mining deposits in the mines are all over the world, you know, political changes can be brutal. You can get wiped out on those, so you got to be careful about jurisdiction. But that move from, you know, from fossil fuels to renewables, that’s kind of a big deal. You can’t ignore it. Even if you disagree with it, you cannot ignore it.

Preston Pysh 9:29
So Dan, you first recommended the stock that we’re talking about today, Altius Minerals, back in 2009. What did you see then? And what has happened since?

Dan Ferris 9:38
Well, it’s transformed since 2009. When I bought this thing, I had known the management team because I’d own the stock, but I kind of lost track of it. And you know, the financial crisis ensued, and the thing was, you know, 30, and then it was like, five or something. And so I started paying attention to it again. But at that time, what I was looking at was something that was trading at a discount to cash and liquid investments. That’s all I was doing. It was like a net-net to me, and I had owned it. I, I thought the guys were honest, and would run a good business, and not run it into the ground. And I thought, “Okay, well, you know, net-net. Spring of 2009, you know? Things don’t get much uglier than this. So, here we go!” And, you know, they were doing like 3 million a year or something, and they had one paying royalty. They have like 15 of America. And they had one paying royalty that was making them 3 million a year that was covering their G&A, right? So they were paying the bills on this royalty. So, because early in their history, the founder, Brian Dalton said, you know what, “I hate this, you know, digging holes and diluting shareholders model that everyone pursues.” You know? And so, they had a big winner early on. They put 600,000 bucks into a uranium deposit and sold it for 200 million. So when I found them, they had put 600 grand into this uranium deposit. They sold it for 200 million. They were hanging on to, you know, after taxes, they wound up with like 150 million or so or something. And they were hanging on to it, and making a list of all the premier royalty assets they wanted to own. And they were taking their time, and they were waiting for things to come to them, you know? They wanted to be; you always want to be the liquidity provider right at the moment when liquidity is at a premium. But then, they really built it into something. So you know, 3 million a year after a few acquisitions, and a, a decade later is probably going to wind up close to 80 million a year in royalty revenue this year. You know, I mentioned the insurance companies a moment ago. All the insurers want to say, “We have discipline. We have underwriting discipline.” Right? And it’s the same with all the prospect generators in the mining industry, you know? They want to say, “We have discipline.” But of course, they don’t all have discipline. But these guys really do. They waited and waited and waited. They sat on that money. They got it in like 2008. They sat on it until 2014. And then they found a deal to do because, of course, by 2014 the cycle is way down. And there were debt crises in the mining industry and people were having to cough up assets to raise cash, etc., etc. You know, you probably remember companies like Cleveland-Cliffs and, and the company they bought from SHAREit. SHAREit was a company that was having trouble, and they needed to discard (*inaudible*) some assets and they had a really cool mining royalty portfolio that contains some wonderful potash royalties. It also had some coal royalty, so they kind of had to take the two together, you know, to get the whole deal, and they partnered up with Liberty Mutual, an insurance company that had a history of investing in mining and they bought this thing. The total purchase price was like 262 billion on Altius side. In 2018, Liberty Mutual got tired of the mining industry and Altius wound up buying the other piece of it, so they own all of these potash royalties. And, you know, that’s just one deal. But they made a bunch of them over the years, and they waited. You know, they started in 2014. They put some money to work through 2018 or so. And just that one deal, I mean, the potash royalties are a thing of beauty. So with mining, like the average gold mine that you’ll find today, they’ll tell you that the life of the mine will be, you know, maybe, like if you’re really lucky, like 12-15 years. Maybe more if you’ve got a really good one. But these potash mines in Canada, the royalties on these mines, this is like, this is something like a fifth of the world’s potash production that Altius has a royalty on. Okay, and so, the mines, the mine lives are like 800, 900, well in excess of a 1000 years, you know, so this is like something you pass on to your great-great-grandchildren or something, which is highly unusual. A mine is a depleting asset, right? So it becomes less valuable over time. But these potash mines, they’ll get capital investment, and they will increase the production as they’ve done since Altius bought these royalties. So over time, the royalty revenue–it’s perfectly rational to expect it to grow, which is a little weird when you’ve got a depleting asset. But it’s just so large, and over time they can, you know, they can expand; meet increased demand for, you know, potash fertilizer as the global population increases. And it’s, it’s just a really cool asset. And that’s the one they were targeting, and they got it. They own a 100% of it today. And that alone, I think that the consensus net asset value on that these days is like, maybe 220 some million, and they’ve pulled about 36 million and after tax cash out of it. And their cost is like 138 million. So, you know, and this is like, just the first few years of literally centuries to come! Well, and this is one asset. So and then, there’s another side of the business, which back then was a lot more important, and that is the prospect generation business. So there’s the royalty business and the prospect generation business. There’s constantly these two lines of business. And the first thing you notice is that they’re at opposite ends of the mining value chain, right? So at the very beginning is prospect generation. You take a little bit of money, and you take out an original mineral prospect. Then, you bring a partner in, and have them spend their money and earn their way into a bigger share of it; to drill it out and see what you got there. You’re finding these prospects and then getting someone else to take the lion’s share of the risk. And you just keep doing that. You keep doing it over and over and over again. And part of the secret to this business, which Altius Head of Exploration, Lawrence Winter, taught me years ago. He said, “Dan, these prospect gene–,” and we were in a mining conference. He said, “You look around, everybody’s saying they’re a prospect generation firm. But they’re not. They’re not really doing the model right. Because if you’re doing the model right, you find your prospect; you spend as little money as possible, then you get that partner in, and do that deal; and you move on. But all these guys at this conference, right?” He says, “This guy, and this guy, and this guy, and this guy, they’re talking about their flagship asset. There’s no flagship asset! That’s like a red flag, you know, in the prospect generation business. Somebody says, ‘We’re prospect generation.’ You have three assets, and this is the one we’re putting our money into it. That’s not the way the model is really supposed to work, right?” So, so I got an education, and I just happened to be getting an education from the best people in the business. And if you ask around, other companies will tell you that they want to be like Altius Minerals. So over time, I’ve seen them do this. I’ve seen them spend little bits of money and take, you know, in one case, hundreds of millions of dollars out or tens of millions of dollars, and I’ve seen them invest equity in other, you know, just sort of pick and choose one or two other equities, you know? They put money into the, into Virginia Mines that was run by Andre Gaumont, you know, which was eventually bought out. And they, really nice royalty there that’s owned by another company called Cisco. And they made tens of millions. I think they made about 30 million off of that. I guess my point here is there’s a lot of really cool stuff going on; on both sides of the business. And right now, like starting 2016, that prospect generation side, they’ve done like 57 deals! They’ve done 57 deals in which they took out a royalty and/or got some equity, too. And their, you know, their equity portfolio was like, you know, 20 million or something back then. It’s like closer to 70 million now. If you include their debenture in there, it’s worth about 10 million. It’s worth about 75 million if you include that now. So, so that business, it pays for itself, which is really cool.

Stig Brodersen 18:42
So Dan, with many listed companies, especially smaller companies, money managers, experts like you, they can build a relationship with the management, and you have that and you’ve seen how they behave over a full cycle. Now, arguments on both sides here, why it’s so important to build that relationship. But you also hear people were saying, “Well, it’s probably not a good thing to become too familiar with the management because you can also become biased in the way that you evaluate them. Say that you like them or you dislike them, you know? It might be a bias to your, to the way you evaluate their performance. Now, you’ve chosen to get to know the management really well, but what are your thoughts on the general issue about separating yourself from the management of a company?

Dan Ferris 19:31
Most of the time, you don’t want to get too close. But in the mining industry, you want to sit down and have a drink with these guys on a regular basis. You want to recreate with them. I went up to Labrador and went fishing for a week with these guys. You want to get to know them. You want to, you know, just talk to them and find out who they are and what they do. Because, you know, there’s just so many weird characters in the mining business. I’m telling you! And there’s a lot of shenanigans in the mining business, too. So, I hear you and it’s true. We don’t, you know, sit down and, and recreate with the managements of hardly of any other companies. These are the only ones where we do. It is my personal opinion that you really shouldn’t do it any other way. You really need to know who you’re dealing with, you know, more so than any other industry that I can think of.

Preston Pysh 20:23
So, Dan, talk to us about the ownership structure, the company is only capitalized at around 360 million. So what are some of the advantages and disadvantages associated with that?

Dan Ferris 20:33
The insiders own about I think 10% at this point, and capital structure is not weird. They have some debt. They have some little bit of preferred stock that was sold to Prem Watsa, the Warren Buffett of Canada. But I don’t see anything weird, and certainly in the capital structure, and certainly the folks invested in it are non insiders. You know the only potential red flag is the one you point out, you know? I am close with these guys, I mean, I, I’m friendly with them. That could mean that I am biased to, you know, maybe not wanting to sell the thing. But I don’t know, you tell me that, you know, you find a company that goes 13 fold on the revenue and wait, you know, six years til the cycle bottoms up before they start putting money to work. I mean, you know how this works! Money burns holes in people’s pockets. Cash burns holes in people’s pockets, especially in these little companies where they feel like they have to impress someone. A couple of guys within Altius were like, “Hey, Brian! Is it time yet? Is it time yet? Is it time yet?” He was like, “Nope, wait.” And he kept saying, “Don’t wait, you know, don’t worry. She’ll turn. She’ll turn. She’ll turn, meaning the market, the cycle, you know? And it did! Just like, you know, it’s a thing of beauty to see that kind of discipline in somebody who really is willing to kind of put their money where their mouth is, and it was rare. And I started getting much higher conviction about these guys in the downturn, right? When things are going swimmingly well, everybody looks good. And the business model is so capital efficient. It’s not a mining company right there. Either end of the spectrum, they take something off the top of the mining revenue on the royalty side, and they are the first guys in the prospect generation side with little amounts of capital. So, and you know, the royalty side is a thing of beauty in itself, right? It’s, you know, you get this royalty, you’re never on the hook for operating expenses. You’re never on the hook for capital expenses. And if you get an expanding, you know, volume where the mine volume can expand like with the potash I was describing. Ooh, wee! Wonderful, you know? And that’s what they look for. They look for those opportunities; the optionality of being able to expand the mine and grow the revenue. And it all comes without any incremental investment, right? That expansion, all the cap ex is out of the mining company, not out of Altius.

Stig Brodersen 22:54
So let’s continue talking about those cycles, Dan. You know, many companies in the mining industry throughout the value chain, they really give investors a headache whenever they start looking at the financial statements. This is not your steady as the beating drum. So if you look specifically at Altius, you know, if you look at the income statements from 2009 to 2011, it was profitable, and then became unprofitable financial year of 2012 to 17, and then became profitable again last year in 2018. Now, for you who are very familiar with reading their financial statements, what is your advice to our listeners who are interested in the stock and wants to dig into the financial statements of the company, but we’re probably more familiar with, you know, financial statements where it is more steady as the beating drum from year to year?

Dan Ferris 23:48
If you’re going to invest in Altius, and you’re going to look at these financial statements, you have to get on the phone and ask questions. That’s all there is to it. Now, when you see these things where, you know, they go from getting revenue from a partnership, which is how the potash and the coal royalty started out to getting the revenue directly because now they own the whole thing. That’s a big change in the financial, so you need to call them up, and just, you know, ask them what’s going on? Why is this thing called “other revenue?” And then they explain, “Well, it’s coming from a partnership. That’s why it’s other revenue.” And then you just learn things like that over the years, and pretty soon, I won’t say it ever starts to look normal. But you know, you start to be able to figure it out. And sure, I’m saying call the company. I’m not saying you’re always taking the company’s word for everything. You have to keep asking questions until you’re satisfied.

Preston Pysh 24:42
So Dan, this value that you see in Altius, how much do you attribute to where we’re at in the cycle versus the stock itself?

Dan Ferris 24:50
Well, I would say like almost zero. This is not a play when higher metals prises for me. Not at all. It’s a play on long term value creation by a highly competent management team over the full cycle. And I think, you know, the revenue growth, the 13x revenue growth that we’ve seen, I think this is just the beginning. And I’ve said I thought this stock had multibagger potential for some time, and people kind of scratch their heads and say, “You’re kidding me, you know?” But I’m not. Their goal is to become kind of the Franco Nevada of the diversified mining space, right? They’re the non precious metal version. They want to be the non precious metal version of that. And there isn’t one, and there has never been one. So that’s pretty cool, I think. And I think it’s a good goal. Because if you look at the market caps of all the diversified mining companies versus the mark caps of all the gold mining companies, you know, one is like five times bigger than the other. So there’s a lot more to do in a diversified space than there is in the gold space. Everybody thinks gold royalties are the thing to have. Actually, there’s no such thing as a cheap royalty of any kind, really. Royalties are valuable and they always trade hands at solid prices. But people are little extra crazy about gold royalties, you know? Franco Nevada routinely trades at north of 20 times royalties. Whereas, you know, Altius, the Canadian market cap, you were talking about the US market caps 60 (*inaudible*), right? Canadian market caps around 470. And the guidance is worth 2019, which is almost over. The 77 to 81 million in royalty revenue, right? You know, we’re in the neighborhood of like six times. And let me ask you, would you rather have a gold situation that’s maybe just call it a 15 year or 20 year, you know? Really shoot the works, 15 or 20 year mine life? Or would you rather have those potash royalties I described, and you’re getting paid in a dollar of royalty revenue? So what do you care where it comes from? It’s a little loony. The people go so crazy for gold royalties, and they let all these minerals get this cheap. It’s a little weird.

Stig Brodersen 27:07
Now, based on your detailed research on the stock; right now, the stock is trading at around 11 Canadian dollars, how do you assess the intrinsic value of Altius Minerals? And where do you see catalysts to realize this value?

Dan Ferris 27:23
So, I’ve got about 31 million in cash, and I’m calling the equity portfolio 75 million. They call it 65. But I’m including a $10 million debenture that they have that instrument. I take the low end of the royalty range, which right now for this year is 77 million, and I kind of multiply it by 13. I think that’s a reasonable market multiple. And then, I’ve got some other assets here. They have a thing called the Carbon Development Partnership. Unless the value of some royalties that came out of that, and I get a gross asset value somewhere in the neighborhood of a billion. And then, total liabilities are 173 million on the very latest balance sheet, so I get this net asset value around 990 million. We impaired the coal royalties because the Canadian government says that, “We’re shutting down all the coal mines in 2030.” And so, we impaired them and then Altius came out and impaired them a little more. So if their impairment is higher, we use theirs. It’s about a buck 75 a share. So, you know, net of that impairment; all liabilities; we’re around 900 million; and the fully diluted share counts around 42. It’s slightly south of 43 million. It gets us up around 21 bucks a share, which sounds insane. But the insane part, if you think I’m insane, is my revenue royalty on the royalties. So, you can impair that how you like, and I think we won’t get very far south of 15 or 16 bucks. Now, if you really want to stick it to him and say, “Well, the market doesn’t like him right now, so I’m gonna cut that multiple way down.” And the thing is 11. And there’s also, you know, a bit of a funk right now amongst, amongst natural resources companies that are not precious metals firms. I think they’re being lumped in with that. One thing people don’t realize, like, it’s your dream to find something that stays relatively cheap for quite an extended period of time. It’s going to continue to throw off the cash that it makes, but I think they’re gonna to continue to raise the, the dividend over time. And you know, your whatever it is right now, I think it’s like 1% or 2% or something. But, you know, over time, I think you’re going to eventually be making like a double digit yield over your cost. And you know, certainly if you got in when I first told people to, you know, it like seven bucks way back in 2009. And even now at 11, it’s not much higher, and yet the value of the thing has just…and they’ve managed it brilliantly. And they used to have five times the net that they even use. It was like five times. Now, it’s like south of two. Little north of one, not much farther north of one. But a huge range here. Put say it’s worth 16 to 20. Let’s do that, and you’re an 11. Fantastic deal!

Stig Brodersen 30:26
Dan, thank you so much for coming here on the show! And talk to us about mining; talk about the good things; the bad things; and one of the specific picks here in royalties. Where can the audience learn more about you and Stansberry Investor Hour?

Dan Ferris 30:43
Well, you can go to www.investorhour.com. They’ll tell you everything you want to know about the Stansberry Investor Hour. And if you want to learn about the Extreme Value newsletter, you can go to stansberryresearch.com and poke around on the website and find out about it. Thank you very much! I really enjoyed being here, and I just want everybody to know who are listening, I love We Study Billionaires. I think it’s like, you know, one of the very few financial podcasts on the planet. I really like it. I feel like I discovered something really cool when I found you guys.

Preston Pysh 31:14
That’s very kind of you. Thanks, Dan! We’re totally flattered and really enjoyed having you on the show today. Thank you so much!

Stig Brodersen 31:23
Alright, so for the next segment of the show, we play a question from the audience. And this question comes from Jake.

Jake 31:29
Hi, Stig and Preston! I love your work. This is more of a business related question, I guess. Do you both prefer, enjoy focusing on the TIP business or individual security investments? I know you’ve spoken in the past about Buffett being just as much of a businessman in owning and running Berkshire as an investor. Do you both feel similar? Again, thanks for everything. Keep up the good work. We all love you. Cheers!

Stig Brodersen 32:01
Wow, that’s a really insightful question! I really, really like that. So, first about Buffett. Yes, it is a common misperception that he is the best stock picker in the world. He’s fantastic, but he’s likely not the best. He is, however, one of the very best business people in the world. And I think this is best exemplified if you look closer at the Berkshire businesses. The value of Buffett stock portfolio is smaller than the value of his operating businesses. And what Buffett has been so good at is to build, grow, and manage a collection of operating businesses. So just one famous example is whenever he bought up insurance companies, and use the so called “Float,” meaning the premium we as consumers pay for our insurance. And Buffett used and still uses that float to invest in the stock market. Because you can accumulate a lot of wealth if you have billions of essentially free money to invest in compared to a slightly better stock picker that only invest what he makes from his day job. And then you ask about the TIP business compared to picking individual stocks. Now, we all heard these stories about investing in Amazon, Google or whatever company many years ago, and the value of that investment has just been growing say a 100 fold. However, most of that return that we make; for the investor who has not been smart enough or lucky enough to invest in these amazing growth stories, is really from investing in the right asset class. And by that I mean the price to value ratio, and not so much on the individual investment. For instance, with specific stock to buy. So, let me give you an example. If you make $50,000 per year, and you’re able to set aside $2,000 per year. The size of your portfolio will likely not depend on which stocks you invest in, but rather how much money you make, and in turn, how much you’re able to set aside. And then, it’s dependent on which asset class you decide to invest in like stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, or whatever asset class that is priced most attractively. For instance, if the stock market is priced at a very low expected return, which it is right now, you’ll just be fighting an uphill battle with a diversified portfolio. And you might be able to beat the markets say 3% expect to return and make 4%, which in itself would be really impressive, you know, speeding the market is really, really hard. But perhaps you should take a look around and see where you can put in your time and energy to find an asset class where you can expect to make a significantly higher return. Now, I know make it sound a lot easier than it really is. But please allow me to provide an example. Through my holding company, I’m investing in a real estate deal where I make an 11% return annually. And the risk profile is different than investing in the stock market. And if I’ve done my homework right, the risk will actually be lower. But it definitely requires a little more work than just investing in the stock market index. Also, for many private deals, you cannot invest an indefinite amount into the investment, which is sort of can (*inaudible*) the stock market. And you also have to learn about a new asset class. So more than thinking like an investor, I have to think like a businessman in the process to set up what hopefully turns out to be a profitable deal. But as you point out, it’s really two sides of the same coin. And this is the tricky part of being both businessman and an investor would likely not pay off in the short run. For instance, whenever I was a professor at the local college, I could choose to make short term money by teaching an extra class per week. Or I could create assets like recording more podcast episodes or building a new course. But that won’t pay me anything, or at least not in the short run. So, whenever you educate yourself as an investor and as a businessman, you end up spending a ton of time on research and you make many mistakes. And if you can set aside say $2,000 per year, whether you return three or 4%, the first year won’t really have an impact. But being a good businessman will allow you to set more money aside each month. And you’ll be able to generate a significantly higher return because you will have the skill set to move around in the respective asset classes, and even navigate better in the same asset class like equities, where you’ll be able to pick much better stocks.

Preston Pysh 36:31
So Jake, I really like this question. And it’s, I don’t think it’s anything that I’ve really talked about too much on this show. But I’ve talked to friends, family, acquaintances about this idea before and the thing that I tell these people when we have conversations is I almost feel like a lot of people in business, particularly people that were entrepreneurs that stood up a company that was successful, and I would call it something successful with the company’s capitalize at $10 million or somewhere in that ballpark. I would call that success. But what you find a lot of the times is these private companies that kind of hover around between the $10 to $15 million mark. These founders are really good at the operational business. Whatever that product or service is, they’ve mastered it. They’ve done really well for themselves, but they kind of hit like a…a ceiling, and they can’t get past that growth point. I would argue, and this is very arguable, some people might have a different opinion. I would argue that those founders, if they continue to be in the management role and control the equity of that business, have difficulty expanding and growing beyond that mark. Some of them might not want to, but I think a lot of them struggled to go beyond that mark because that’s where their business has to transition from being an expert at whatever that product or service is to being great capital allocators of their retained earnings. So that business is producing earnings every year. Now, they’ve got to figure out a way to go beyond that product or service that they’ve mastered and that they understand really well, and they have to start allocating that non operationally. Now, the returns, when that person makes that transition to a non operational form of allocating their retained earnings is often very difficult because the returns that they’re getting on that capital is lower than the returns that they had seen by investing locally in their business or in that product or service. And the main reason why is because when you’re creating the assets inside your business, it’s definitely more risky. But there’s also a whole lot more upside to that because you’re setting everything up. There’s no middleman. There’s no person that’s cutting away at that profit margin. When you’re allocating resources in stocks, bonds, whatever security you’re talking about, you often get into a point where you’re just buying the assets that somebody else produced. You’re also competing against all the other people out there that are trying to own that equity that’s in the public sector. And sometimes even in the private sector, it can get very competitive for the value of certain businesses, depending on how strategically aligned it is with your business. So I know that’s a really long answer to your question, but I think it’s important for people to understand that a lot of the stuff that we talked about on our show, which is investing in companies that are public securities are lower return type investments than if a person would be able to invest operationally in themselves and create a product or service that serves the marketplace in a competitive way. So I think that transition is very tricky. And I think that that’s one of the reasons why so many people can’t do is because they have to step out of what it is that they know to understand how finance is done. You know a lot of these businesses that they go this route, they have somebody else do all their accounting. They’re not looking at the income statement in the balance sheet kind of with that investor mindset or that investor eye like Warren Buffett who looks at both parts of the business: the operational side and the non operational side equally and, and from a similar light. So, Jake, for asking such a great question, we have an online course called our Intrinsic Value Course that we’re going to give you completely for free. Additionally, we have a filtering and momentum tool which we call TIP Finance. We’re gonna give you a year long subscription to TIP Finance completely for free. Leave us a question at asktheinvestors.com. That’s asktheinvestors.com. If you’re interested in these tools, simply go to our website, theinvestorspodcast.com, and you can see right there and at our top level navigation there are links to TIP Finance, and also the TIP Academy where you’d find the Intrinsic Value Course.

Stig Brodersen 40:54
All right, guys! That was all Preston and I had for this week’s episode of The Investor’s Podcast. We see each other again next week!

Outro 41:01
Thank you for listening to TIP! To access our show notes, courses, or forums, go to the investorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only. Before making any decisions consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by The Investor’s Podcast Network. Written permissions must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.

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