Below is a distribution chart of the multiple of the bitcoin price over the 200-day moving average. If a person decides to allocate a small portion of their portfolio to Bitcoin, this tool is intended to help people understand their emotions and corresponding probabilities of various price multiples (from a historical context). The charts and following information is not telling you to buy or sell Bitcoin. Bitcoin is insanely volatile. The charts do not suggest future results will be the same as the past. Please note, some suggest the long-term value of Bitcoin is high (in excess of $100,000 per Bitcoin), but there are also others that say Bitcoin is a mania and will be deeply regulated by the government if it is allowed to get too large. Either way, this page is simply a study to understand the probabilities of price multiples and what is normal and abnormal levels (from a historical context).
Last update on 13 December 2017 (7:13 AM EST)
The 200 Day Moving Average is: $4764.06
The average Mayer Multiple is 1.45 for the history of Bitcoin.
The multiple on 10 December 2017 is 3.56. A higher multiple has historically happened only 3.04% of the time. A price less than $11,433 would put the Mayer Multiple below 2.4X on 13 DEC 2017. A price of $6,931 would put the price on the average multiple of 1.45X. The BTC price when this calculation was last conducted was $16,969 USD.
The Mayer Multiple Since the Inception of Bitcoin
The chart below was determined by a simulation. The simulation assumed a person had $100 to invest in Bitcoin everyday since inception. There was only 1 control variable – the Mayer Multiple. If the price was < x Mayer Multiple, then the individual would buy $100 worth of BTC. If the price was >= x Mayer Multiple, the person would accumulate fiat until the price dropped back below x. The various x multiples that were tested are listed on the x axis below. When the simulation was run for various Mayer Multiples, it produced various returns (displayed in BTC on the y axis of the chart below). The chart demonstrates that anything over a Mayer Multiple of 2.4X failed to produce better results. When a multiple was selected below 2.4X, the BTC buyer got dramatically worse results. But, it’s very important to note that a new entrant buying below a 2.4X threshold would have an easier time emotionally during the first few quarters of ownership. Please note, every time the Mayer Multiple has gone above the 2.4X line, it has returned below 1.5X. In our simulation, we did not hold cash until reaching 1.5X (instead, the model simply purchased more BTC once below the 2.4X threshold). If the simulation would have waited for repurchase below 1.5X (after movement above 2.4X was achieved), the results would have likely been better than depicted below. This, however, may or many not be indicative of how the market might perform in the future, so those enhanced results were not displayed.
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