Which stock pick should we analyze next?2018-04-05T22:48:58+00:00

Forums Stock Picks Which stock pick should we analyze next?

Forums Stock Picks Which stock pick should we analyze next?

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Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 56 total)
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  • Ebrahim A Member
    Post count: 10

    Hi Stig, I have read some of your company valuations in the intrinsic value indexes and it was really beneficial, but one thing I didn’t understand which was how to put a margin of safety on a specific company?

    thanks,
    Ebrahim

    StigStig Administrator
    Post count: 162

    Great question Ebrahim!

    You can do this different ways.

    1) Be conservative in your estimate. For instance, if you use very low growth rates.

    2) Calculate the intrinsic value and then only buy it if the price is for instance 50% cheaper

    3) Always require a higher threshold for your implied return. Say that you only want to invest if your implied return is 10%.

    Thank you for checking out the free index!

    -Stig

    Price is what you pay. Value is what you get. - Warren Buffett

    Ebrahim A Member
    Post count: 10

    Thank you so much for the clarification.

    mario123n@gmail.com Newbie
    Post count: 8

    Hi Stig and David,

    I’ve been trying to understand Allergan (AGN) because Baupost and Appaloosa have bought it and recently there were reports Icahn has taken a small position. I understand David may have commented on AGN previously. With my limited knowledge of accounting I’m concerned about repeated negative operating margins/income even though their stated FCF is positive. There are some reports that they have not strictly adhered to GAAP accounting. Do you have an opinion on these issues or on the company in general and would you consider doing a valuation on it? BTW Morningstar has AGN currently rated as a five star buy.

    Kind Regards,

    Mario

    Justin L Newbie
    Post count: 2

    Hey Stig,

    I hope you all will analysis Gulfport Energy GPOR. It is an oil and gas company that has ownership and many other companies that are doing quite well. GPOR is in the process of doing share buybacks, it has a book value of $17.50 and is trading at $12, and they have increased there production.

    Thanks

    mario123n@gmail.com Newbie
    Post count: 8

    Hey Guys,

    I have a couple of suggestions. Synchrony Financial SYF. Any interest in Allergan AGN?

    Regards,

    Mario.

    StigStig Administrator
    Post count: 162

    Thanks guys!

    We’re recording next week so this is very useful!

    -Stig

    Price is what you pay. Value is what you get. - Warren Buffett

    Harrison G Newbie
    Post count: 1

    Hello, I’m Harrison Gross, media manager at Tekcapital plc (AIM: TEK). I’m posting here to connect with UK tech investors.
    Tekcapital is a UK IP investment group founded in 2014 in Oxford. We’ve built the world’s largest university research network and can access the new innovations of over 4,500 universities and research institutions in 160 countries. This broad selection of IP provides a competitive advantage and has contributed to the growth in the company’s revenue and net assets.

    1. We use our network to help our corporate clients source university IP.
    2. We provide analytic reports to more than 250 universities that help them assess the market potential of new technologies they develop.
    3. We provide executive placement services to recruit managers for their technology transfer offices.
    4. We selectively invest in early-stage university technologies that can improve the quality of life, create lasting value and generate a potential oversized return on invested capital.

    Over the last three years, we have established nine portfolio companies around compelling intellectual properties.

    Three of these new companies have made significant progress, and if successful over time could be worth a multiple of our current market capitalization.

    One portfolio company is Belluscura Ltd, a medical device company which has five unique products (three are currently being sold and two are in late stage development), a strong team, and has built what we believe to be the world’s most advanced portable oxygen concentrator. According to Knowledge Sourcing Intelligence, the POC market is projected to reach US$1.7b by 2022. Belluscura plans to file a 510(K) application with the US FDA in 2018, creating a significant opportunity for the company in 2019 and beyond.

    Another portfolio company is Lucyd Ltd, which was established to introduce ergonomic augmented reality glasses that function like regular glasses with additional tech features. Lucyd is launching an eShop for advanced eyewear this summer, and is also developing apps to help improve the connectivity of wearables and blockchain technologies.

    Tekcapital’s unique portfolio also includes Salarius Ltd, which we are building based on a patented process for producing a novel low-sodium salt (providing the same taste with half of the sodium). The company is well positioned to enter the low sodium salt and healthy snacks market in the near future. Recently, Salarius added two directors, both with Fortune 500 senior management experience.

    Align Research rated Tekcapital as a “Conviction Buy.”

    We’d love to hear any feedback you have about our business. To learn more please visit tekcapital.com. For investor relations please contact IR@tekcapital.com.

    Stephen M Newbie
    Post count: 2

    Gents,
    Would it be too soon to look at GE? Financials don’t support any value at this point but what about the intangibles and direction that Flannery seems to be taking the company? Additionally does the Healthcare spin-off move GE up or onto anyone’s list for potential value?

    john.jadick@yahoo.com Newbie
    Post count: 1

    I was look at Chubb Insurance. Below are the particulars. I still don’t know why insurance companies I look at not have current ratio information. Don’t know if the powers that be would like to look into CB.

    thx

    Chubb Insurance (CB)
    Shiller Index: 33.07
    Must be <22.5, P/E<15, P/BV<1.5
    10-year Fed Note: 3.14
    P/E=16
    P/BV=1.25; 16*1.25=20<22.5 YES
    (FY08-17)
    Revenue: 13632; 15075; 16006; 16834; 17936; 19261; 19171; 18987; 31469; 32243
    FCF: 4101; 3335; 3546; 3470; 3995; 4022; 4496; 3864; 5292; 4503
    1. Market Cap: >50M YES 12.6B
    2. P/E <15 NO 16
    3. Current Ratio N/A
    4. ROE > 8% YES 12.17%
    5. D/E < 0.5 YES 0.10
    Pillar #1 Vigilant Leaders: YES
    Debit: 1013+11864=12877 / Equity 51172 = 0.25<0.50 YES

    Pillar #2 A stock must have long term prospects YES Insurance

    Pillar #3 A stock must be stable and understandable YES
    BV Per Share: 43.31, 58.21, 68.59, 70.49, 80.90, 83.04, 91.33, 89.74, 103.81, 108.81
    EPS: 3.50, 7.55, 9.11, 4.52, 7.89, 10.92, 8.42, 8.62, 8.87, 8.19
    Div: 1.09, 1.19, 1.30, 1.03, 2.41, 1.51, 3.21, 2.66, 2.74, 2.82
    Current Ratio: N/A
    D/E: 0.19, 0.16, 0.15, 0.14, 0.13, 0.14, 0.12, 0.33, 0.27, 0.23
    ROE: 7.69, 14.94, 14.58, 6.68, 10.40, 13.34, 9.77, 9.65, 10.68, 7.76
    Cash Flow (FY 13-17) (o): 4,022, 4,496, 3,864, 5,292, 4,503
    (i): (4,442), (2,504), (6,294), (5,315), (2,442)
    (f): 391, (1,777), 3,695, (742), (2,319)

    Pillar #4 A stock must be undervalued:
    Current Bv: 108.82
    Old BV: 43.31
    # year BTW: 9
    Avg. BV Change: 10.78

    Cash out of Biz: 2.82
    Current BV: 108.82
    Avg. BV Change ;10.78
    Years:10
    10-year Fed Note: 3.14
    IV: 246.22
    MP: 125.78
    Difference +120.44

    Jimmy DJimmy D Moderator
    Post count: 49

    I’d like to suggest JYNT. It’s a US franchise of chiropractic clinics.

    – No appointments needed (very millennial;-), access paid via monthly subscription.

    – Niche Clients. People tend to either be wary of chiropractic or swear by it (like me) and we’re a passionate bunch.

    – Chiropractic is not required to be covered by insurance in many states (ie Covered California Plans in my case), JYNT offers patients like me convenient access to a chiropractor at a rate that’s less than most insurance copays.

    – Turning the “Amazon Effect” into Opportunity. While shops in strip malls and downtowns may not do as well because of amazon competition, Joint locations can capitalize on the higher supply of space.

    All of this is anecdotal. I’d love for us to analyze the potential of JYNT.

     

    "Every problem is an opportunity in disguise." - John Adams

    StigStig Administrator
    Post count: 162

    Thank guys for all the suggestions. I’m thinking about MNDO for the next mastermind group.

    Do you guys have any thoughts on that?

    David wrote a great analysis here: https://1nodld1ltmqu3jimmy2xsgcu-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/MNDO-Intrinsic-Value.pdf

    -Stig

    Price is what you pay. Value is what you get. - Warren Buffett

    Jesse S Newbie
    Post count: 4

    I love this pick. It’s cheap enough were small investors dabbling in the market before they go full-bore, like myself, can play with options. Only downside to options here they seem to have a stable price. Which is great but provides a small window for options.

    My only concern is at the time the original synopsis was written 10-yr bonds were 2.xx % and estimated returns were 8.xx %. Now bonds are around 3.17% so it might drop lower than what could be described as lucrative.

    However, the company appears stable and the EPS-to-Dividends ratio is quite attractive. I’d love, nonetheless, to hear your opinion on this one.

    Jesse S Newbie
    Post count: 4

    I’d like to see a valuation of eBay. They recently (2015) went through a separation with longtime ally PayPal. In 2015 they appointed Devin Wenig as the new CEO who has stated he is investing heavily into the AI field of commerce. Before the split their book growth, net income, EPS and FCF were consistent. After the split, however, their financials have taken a rocking and it appears, in my opinion, to still be affecting them but the waves are settling.

    Ebay’s major competition is Amazon. eBay has also announced a new collaboration with Disney. I believe this could possibly affect them positively in the future as Disney has a loyal fan base.

    With Preston’s stated support for AI, I’d like to know his take on the matter and where his support on AI currently lies, if it’s since changed. I myself am skeptical of AI as I believe it takes away the human factor of business and has herd creatures we generally need human interaction. I also think AI can be a danger if it does not have human oversight or behind-the-scenes control. Maybe I’ve seen too many Terminator movies. Nonetheless, I do believe AI can enhance our experiences and abilities.

    In summary, I think eBay has taken a hard left hook since their split with Paypal. I honestly don’t know if eBay is a good deal or not as it is difficult for a novice, like myself, to value a company that is having negative numbers. If possible I’d like to hear from some of the more seasoned investors on this one.

    Bruce Newbie
    Post count: 6

    Hey all,

    Love the show. Some ideas:

    – TenCent Holdings or other cheap mega Chinese ENTER TYPE HERE company (TCEHY)
    – Air Transat – a dirt cheap Canadian airline or call 1-800-AIRLINE-OHOLIC? (TRZ)
    – Bayer – cheap even considering legal troubles? (BAYRY)
    – Uber – where to begin with a valuation – how to invest in Uber today?

    Would love to talk about any one.

    Cheers
    B

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