- Adolphe H NewbieFebruary 22, 2019 at 3:03 pmPost count: 9
I would love to see your take on Micron. pretty volatile industry but overall has a strong balance sheet and good management. been in and out of my screen but it caught my eye even more when Mohnish Pabrai and bill miller decided to invest in it last quarter. ThanksDavid J MemberFebruary 24, 2019 at 8:21 amPost count: 11
Recently I’ve been trying to analyse AVIVA (LSE, Ticker: AV).
I’m finding it difficult to find info and financials – once I did manage to find the info needed I then came into the problem that some info was in USD and some in GBP.
After trying to convert the info into different currencies I then tried to find intrinsic value.
My intrinsic value calcuation came out around 13, which I think is horrendously wrong? I’m not sure if I’m inputting the incorrect info into the calculator or where I’m going wrong..
So it would be great to have your guys views on this stock pick!
UK based Mortgage BrokerStig Brodersen AdministratorFebruary 24, 2019 at 3:22 pmPost count: 210Adolphe H NewbieApril 8, 2019 at 11:56 amPost count: 9
I came across Transalta Renewable (RNW). a Canadian renewable energy stock with assets in Canada, US and Australia. Using the TIP IRR model, i got about 9.3% return with a very conservative growth of a 2% at 70% most likely growth of cashflow at Current price of CAD 13.90. It has a very steady free cashflow and i was intrigued by how much they talk about risks and all that could go wrong in their annual report.
Risks involve regulations, over-dependency to mother company (Transalta) and fierce competition.
I would love to hear your thoughts on this
AdolpheMike M MemberMay 6, 2019 at 10:32 amPost count: 21
I know it’s very contraversal at the moment but I would love to actually see an intrisic value evaluation for Kraft Heinz!
And I am also interested in hearing what you have to say about Continental AG.
I,ll post my calculations and thoughts shortly
Mike McMike M MemberMay 6, 2019 at 12:38 pmPost count: 21
Auto Industry secter!!!
My view here is the Company is financial Healthy, the price had lost 50% over the past few years till early this year where it has made a small comeback.
But I feel this decline is mainly related to the Auto industry in general. While 60% the Revenue are affected directly by the environmental issues facing the Industry, 30% revenue are Tires and 10% ContiTech (Ruber products) outside of the Auto industry.
Contrary to most other Auto Manufacturers ( in Germany at least) Continental have a very strong Positive FCF.
D/E Ratio of 0.08
ROE ca 20%
Using the FCF method lesson 35 I come to a annual return of 14.27% bei 145€ (FCF are in €)
Using Net income for estimate animal growth rate. I disregarded 2009 and 2010 to avoid distortion . Therefore I got 12.8%
With the B/V Methode in lesson 21 I get get a bit less of 8.6% annual return at $165/ share.
I look forward to hearing any comments.
And Stig, how on Earth do you find the time to keep up with all these questions?
1 user liked this post.Rene A NewbieMay 7, 2019 at 9:06 pmPost count: 3
Fonar Corporation (FONR) would be a great company to take a look at. They are a diagnostic imaging company that introduced the MRI and have a competitive moat with their patented standing MRI scans.Stig Brodersen AdministratorMay 10, 2019 at 3:32 amPost count: 210Jimmy D ModeratorMay 10, 2019 at 2:30 pmPost count: 68
I would also be interested in KHC. We all tend to be Buffett-ites – I’d love to test our unbiased scrutiny!
"Every problem is an opportunity in disguise." - John Adamsjohn.firstname.lastname@example.org NewbieMay 11, 2019 at 2:07 pmPost count: 2
I like FONAR as well. Preston and Stig’s IV assessment had the potential return at 13 14 percent. I ran the numbers through the IV calculators, lesson 21 and 35 and got a much higher percent under current conditions. However does anyone have any concerns with the companies negative BVPS and EPS in 2009 and 2010. Also would you look and another indicator during that time frame to relieve the issue of those negative numbers, such as a strong ROE. As always feed back is most appreciated.Rene A NewbieMay 11, 2019 at 3:19 pmPost count: 3
I recently went back and listened to your pitch and agree with a lot of the things you mentioned! I think that one of the things that benefits this company is that the owner is the individual who invented the MRI. Also, the patent on their stand up MRI is also an advantage that will allow for a whole new view and range of scanning under weight loads. I was trying to access the Intrinsic Value analysis on this one however I receive an error. Is there any way you can send it to me or look into the error please?
ReneJavier M NewbieMay 12, 2019 at 2:03 amPost count: 2
Just wanted to mention that as an individual investor I appreciate the engagement you provide to the public. It has been a little over 5 months since I started listening to the podcast and I have greatly enjoyed it!
My apologies for the lack of quantitative information, however, I wanted to share 2 stock picks in my portfolio that have done well and would appreciate your professional analysis.
Evofem Biosciences – Is a biotechnology company that is in my opinion, forefront in developing women’s healthcare products. One of their major products is a non-hormonal contraceptive product called Amphora, that has yielded positive results. This product is also being further studied for the prevention of chlamydia and gonorrhea.
Enphase Energy – Develops semi-conductor equipment/materials for the solar industry. Their prodcuts offer energy conversion and control services with networking and software technologies. This is a company that offers energy efficiency products in the United States and internationally.
Both companies offer great potential and have yielded positive jumps recently. The value of these stocks have been my play on solar energy and the unmet need of women’s healthcare. It would be great to have a more quantitative input by you guys and hopefully sparks an interest!Adolphe H NewbieMay 14, 2019 at 10:12 amPost count: 9
Hello TIP community,
I am not entirely confident about the integrity of financial statement of the big firms in China but i have run numbers on Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical (SHI) and i got mind blowing returns.
The stock itself have been beaten up recently losing more than 40% of its price value for the past 12 months. the decline was mainly due to trade tensions between the US and china and they look exaggerated for a company without long term debt and a sizable chunk of cash.
I would love to hear your thoughts and i hope someone can help me get over the Quantitative Bias that i have for this pick.
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