TIP274: NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES AND COMMODITIES

W/ MARIN KATUSA

21 December 2019

On today’s show, we talk about the impact of negative interest rate bonds and the commodity sector. Our expert guest is Marin Katusa.

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IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

  • Why the interest rates globally are headed even lower than today.
  • Why the US dollar will appreciate.
  • What the future relationship between interest rates and gold will be.
  • Why the traditional dollar and gold relationship is no longer valid.

TRANSCRIPT

Disclaimer: The transcript that follows has been generated using artificial intelligence. We strive to be as accurate as possible, but minor errors and slightly off timestamps may be present due to platform differences.

Preston Pysh 0:00
On today’s show, we bring back a guest by popular demand Mr. Marin Katusa. Marin is an expert in the commodity sector and has financed over a billion dollars worth of deals. We start off today’s show talking about the barrage of negative interest rate bonds that are flooding the market and what kind of impact that might have on the markets moving forward. This is a fantastic discussion that you won’t want to miss. So without further delay, here’s our guest, the thoughtful Marin Katusa.

Intro 0:32
You are listening to The Investor’s Podcast, where we study the financial markets and read the books that influence self-made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected.

Stig Brodersen 0:52
Welcome to The Investor’s Podcast. I’m your host Stig Brodersen. And as always, I’m here with my co-host Preston Pysh. Today, we have the pleasure of speaking with a fan favorite of TIP, Marin Katusa.

Marin Katusa 1:06
It’s always a pleasure.

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Stig Brodersen 1:07
So today’s topic is the negative interest rate policy, and then we’ll transition into talking more about gold. And perhaps whether or not those two subjects are related. But my very first question from you here today, Marin, is that almost all economists and market pundits, they believe that this negative interest rate policy that we see right now would be a short-lived phenomenon. However, you’re of a different opinion. So let me ask you this: Why will this negative interest rate policy, perhaps stick around for much longer than anyone expects, and perhaps we’ll have an even lower interest rate?

Marin Katusa 1:46
Well, it’s all about stimulating one’s economy, while they’re able to stay competitive on the global scale. So it’s very hard for these countries that are having higher unemployment rates. Let’s take the Euro, for example. And if you look at the, you know, whether it’s Germany, which is the leader in the economy in the Euro, they can’t have a strengthening currency with a declining economy. So, you know, how will these bankers stimulate this? And this negative interest rate policy, it’s like quantum economics in a way because A, it’s never been done before on a grand scale. There’s been examples in history, where they got it in the short term. But when everyone starts doing it, it’s a race to the bottom. And, you know, A, do you ever believe politicians? And politicians, especially in the West work on four-year cycles. So I’ve taken a very different view of the markets. And the market is telling you; if you look at the bond markets, and a lot of people don’t realize that the bond market is multiple times bigger than the equity or the stock market of the whole economy. And the bond market is telling you exactly this, that this negative interest rate policy, it’s here to stay. Now, the governments–they’re saying this is a quick fix. It’s not. Look at the repo market. All these things are telling you that as we’re going through this negative interest rate policy, I call them FTDs. This is a financially transmitted disease because it is significantly impacting, and something that the government’s not talking about globally; all the central bankers is this–you would think that negative interest rates that they are just printing money, but the velocity of capital moving around is actually decreasing more than ever. We can get into that. But that, that’s kind of my fundamental basis of why I believe most people are wrong and NIRP is here to stay for a while.

Preston Pysh 3:29
So Marin, I absolutely love some of these comments. Do you have any other points on this philosophy that you think are important or pertinent?

Marin Katusa 3:37
Yeah, so ask yourself this question: If you’re gonna get a negative interest rate, are you going to go out to lend? No. So you look at what’s happening in the bond markets. The coupon rates across the board, whether you want to talk about Australia, or Austria, or, you know, the coupon rates have been slashed and a half, you know, the yield to maturity in the last year, but the price of these coupons are up to anywhere between a third to 80%. So even that–where’s this capital going? It’s now, even in the bond market, it’s now looking at the price. These bond market guys are now being forced to treat the bond markets as equity markets in a way. And we haven’t even started where the corporate debt is going to be redone. Like I’ve estimated and gone through my research, about one third of all investment grade corporate bonds, I think are going to be rewritten down to junk status because everybody is playing this amend, extend, and pretend the game where they’re just pushing it down the line. And you cannot have higher interest rates to this corporate bond market. And that supports my–we’re here for even lower negative interest rates moving down because it’s about velocity of capital. So not only are we going to stay negative. I think we’re going to go even more negative, where we’ll see, you know, the Austrian bond that went negative four and a half, 0.45 negative. I could see it going now, negative six. Now that yield on the Austrian went from, you know, negative point two to negative point four, but the price was up over 60%. So then, you–one of these bankers, and, you know, these savvy investors are gonna go, “Wait a second. We can push the line to go to negative one. And maybe the price only goes up 30%,” then you’ll go for the price of the coupon, then they’re going to push it because they need the velocity of capital. The market is actually craving cash and everyone is living off, while the markets–most people; the corporates (*inaudible*); the governments amend, extend and pretend. So when the party ends, the hangover of all hangovers is going to happen. You’ll see. Like I know it sounds crazy, and I’m not trying to be this, you know, doom and gloom guy, but you’re looking at one third investment grade debt, realistically, in a normal market would be redundant junk status debt. Watch what happens to the market then.

Stig Brodersen 5:48
Very, very interesting. And you know, I think it’s so important what you’re saying here that no rational investor, you would say, would invest in, you know, with these bonds with negative yields that you just explained. But, you know, the other side of the coin, you know, that’s the price of the bond. And you know, you can’t make money of that even if the yield go even more negative. So, so very, very interesting example you brought up there with an Austrian bond. Now, shifting to my next question here–because you expect that this negative interest rate policy will cost the US dollar to rise, while the other making currencies will struggle. Why is that?

Marin Katusa 6:25
So if you look at, for example, the rest of the world, people talk about, “Well, like, you know, what about the Chinese market?” Do you not think they’re doing quantitative easing in a different way? Not like using what the US market or Europeans are doing, by subsidizing and having these quasi government, state-owned companies. There’s all this kind of–most is going around there. And there’s actually a shortage of US dollars in the global market. So if you look at a commodity market is a great place to look at that. As they’re producing in their local currency, they’re sucking in US dollars because it’s at a higher price. So the commodity prices, so take uranium or even if you want to look at oil, uranium is an easy one to understand because one company produces 40% of the world’s uranium. But even though uranium is down 50%, in the last five years, that company is still doing better because their currencies down 65-70%. And their assets are built, and they’re getting US dollars in, and their local economy cost, or their devalued local currency, the tenge for Kazakhstan. That’s an example of where I see the US dollar moving around. And at the end of the day, you know, you have to ask yourself: Where do you want to own the Euro? Look at what’s going on in the pound. Do you want the ruble, the yuan, the yen? And at the end of the day, there’s this fallacy I believe that you buy gold because you think the US dollar is going down. But I think there’s a different strategy here going on. Now, if you’re a US investor, you’re okay with the US dollar. But if you’re a Russian or a in the Middle East, or in China, or you want to protect yourself from a devaluing currency, gold is now a currency insurance more than ever before.

Preston Pysh 8:05
So Marin, you have referred to these negative interest rates as a financially transmitted disease. What do you mean by that?

Marin Katusa 8:13
So, you know, I’ve been in all these big conferences. I speak around the world. And I started talking about this; about a year and a half ago; about where I see the market’s going. People are shaking their head going, “What is this guy talking about; quantum economics and all these bonds?” And the bond markets kind of, it’s not as exciting as talking about stock market, and all these gains. So I, I came up with this, and someone was asking me like, “Bucko (*inaudible*), this is the ultimate disease.” It’s like a financially transmitted disease because what’s going to happen here is look at how anemic the European market is, and look at the cost of borrowing. So how can it ever go up two or three times? Because it’s about rate of change, and this is the problem, where a lot of people go, “Yeah, well, you know, historically, we’re, we’re at super low interest rates.” Yes, that is very true. But look what–how bad the global economy is going on with historically low interest rates. So even if you want it to go to 2%, how awful would that be? Because you’re talking about a 200% change in the cost of borrowing. When you think of it that way, that’s a very expensive cost for the economy, and it just can’t handle it. So when I talk about this financially transmitted disease, most people think, “Yeah, my mortgage should be lower. That sounds good.” But what they don’t realize is this is the worst thing to be addicted to because it slows down the flow of capital. So initially, it sounds good that interest rates are lower. But without that velocity; without the movement of the dollars; without the ability to take money, and borrow it, and grow it. There’s going to be no money moving around, and the economy will go slow. So by definition, this is deflationary. And that is the worst thing for governments that specifically, when you’re in non denominated US dollar because for example, if you’re a company in emerging markets and your currencies getting slaughtered, and you got to pay that in US dollar debt, and this is something people don’t realize: most of the debt globally in infrastructure projects; in mining projects; energy projects, it’s financed in US dollars. It’s still the prime currency of the world. And the cost of that servicing that debt is going to be so incredible that it’s a deflationary now, so there’s less dollars chasing the same number of goods; that’s deflationary. That’s not good for the markets.

Stig Brodersen 10:23
Let’s say that we enter this new regime with very low or negative, even more negative interest rates, and it will just stay down there for a long period of time. Now, we talked about some of the impact in terms of the financial markets, how will we as citizens, and as consumers experience the change in regime?

Marin Katusa 10:45
People more now than ever are living in this echo chamber and this bi-polarization politically, and we see, you know, the activists, whether you believe there’s a climate crisis or not; whether you believe the governments are going socialist or even worse authoritary. We really see this divide. And I believe that this is more fiscal than people truly understand. So I think things are just at the precipice of getting a lot worse. Everyone’s been addicted to cheap that, but it’s been around. But what happens when corporate debt gets restructured to junk bonds? And the party’s over? That’s going to be the awakening. And you know, are we a year away from that? I don’t know. But you look at the bond market, it’s telling you, it’s happening. We are in a much worse position today than we were in the early 2000s. So mourn with everybody

Preston Pysh 11:34
So Marin, with everybody addicted to this free money. How does this all unravel once something systematically breaks?

Marin Katusa 11:41
You know, at the end of the day, it’s going to come out like this. It’s two things are gonna happen, and this is gonna shock a lot of people because I’m a free market guy. But I think it’s going to increase government intervention more than at any point in history. And then, you’re going to have the other side of the market, which think of it as like the free market would be, you know, guys like you and I, and investors in this podcast looking at real businesses, where you’ll be able to buy incredible value. And guys like Warren Buffett are licking their chops because if you have cash in a market, which is craving cash, you will be able to get terms that you could only imagine.

Stig Brodersen 12:15
You know, I think that’s a great segue to the second part of this interview, where we will be talking more about gold. So if we look at the price of gold, an ounce at the very first day of this year closed at 1283. And we were trading higher than 1500 here back in September. Now, how much of this increase in the price of gold, do you think is a reflection of bond investors now taking position in gold as a safe haven?

Marin Katusa 12:44
A lot. What was Warren Buffett’s biggest knock on gold, which kind of funny. People think that Warren Buffett hates silver and gold. People forget that in the mid 90s, Warren Buffett owns one third of all above ground silver. But it was even so small that he didn’t even need to report it that much in his financial statements. Warren Buffett’s about value. Now, his knock on gold, when it was fifteen and sixteen to seventeen hundred dollars was it doesn’t pay me an interest. What can I buy relative to it that pays me? Okay, so now if you’re in Turkey or if you’re in Argentina; you’re in Bolivia; you’re in Columbia; you’re in Venezuela; Russia; the emerging markets, there’s almost like a disadvantage to holding gold because the banks would pay you; the bond market would pay you three points, two points. Now, we’re in negative interest rate. You’re not at that disadvantage of holding gold because whether you had cash, negative interest rates is a way of the government taxing you and getting their money if you think about it, right? So what I’m saying now is that knock on gold isn’t there, and people are starting to realize in, in the emerging markets that wait, you know, when you look what happened to Turkey with the devaluation overnight of the lira; of the people that owned gold. And there’s a huge market for gold, by the way, not just with the dealers and, and the banks, but also the government was willing to buy an–at market rates. That’s where you want to position yourself. So do I see that happening in the US? No, I don’t. But I see that happening globally.

Preston Pysh 14:09
So Marin, I’m kind of curious because there’s a lot of people that say there’s this indicator, that indicator, but what is the canary in the coal mine for you? Some people are looking at the inverted spread between the two-year and the ten-year treasury; others might be looking at the price of gold. What are you looking at?

Marin Katusa 14:26
You have to look at everything. You look at just in the last 48 hours, the DXY, and how the pound is working in the, in the Euro. You’re looking at so much algos; there’s so much up-to-date information. I think you have to pay attention to all of it. But history sure does rhyme. Just because something happened in the inverted yield curve that predicted a recession before doesn’t guarantee it’s going to happen again, but it sure does rhyme. You know, there’s this misinterpretation on the value of how important the US economy and the US dollar is globally, and we have to pay attention. I’ve never seen so many potential black swans that people are talking about that you’re sitting there going, “Wait a second, Saudi Aramco got bombed in September; took down half of their production. And then, who would have thought four months later, their IPO would value the company at $2 trillion?” So we’re in this place that everyone could sit there and say, “What? Like this sounds like a twilight episode.” So expect the unexpected, and the best way to protect yourself–and look, you just talked about Warren Buffett, one of the greatest living investors ever. US dollars is a great place to be, and I think a little bit of gold. And, you know, if you just do the quick numbers, and if you got 1% of the pension funds in North America and Europe; if they just allocated 1% gold and gold companies, it would value gold somewhere between $3500 and $5000 per ounce. We’re just talking about 1% allocation. Right now, it’s 0.15% allocation. Like that–and we’re at historic lows, so it’s not like people are anywhere near fully exposed to gold. So that’s really important for people to understand.

Stig Brodersen 16:02
And speaking of gold, Marin, you’ve done some very interesting research, where you’ve been looking at the past biggest S&P 500 declines, and what that has done to the price of gold. And you find that there is a common misperception, what is that?

Marin Katusa 16:17
Number one is when the market does sell off, there’s this misconception that everyone will flood into gold. That’s actually not true. They bleed into the US dollar ’cause it’s the most liquid asset on the planet; US dollars, number one. Number two, if we take the most recent…like there’s a chart that published on like going back a hundred years of all the recessions, and how did gold form, and you look at it. And it wasn’t for–until like a few months that gold started to pick up because at that point, all the smart guys going, “Get the cash. And then, let’s figure out what to do with the cash, and let’s then just allocate a little bit to gold.” And we saw the run from say 2010 to 2012 on gold, when it went from, you know, 900 to 1800. That’s a big move for gold in such a short span of time. I think we’ll see something more elongated, meaning that I don’t think we’ll double in a year. But I think every year, you’ll see, you know, it range bound. But you know, maybe it’ll go down to 1425. And then, it’ll move back to 1500, 1550. Then, the next year, you’ll see it may be range bound from 1450 to 1600. That’s where I think we’re in a stepwise function as the negative interest rates keep going lower, and there’s less liquidity in the market, people are–start protecting themselves. And as we go from a globalization to more of a nationalization, so the unwind of, you know, the free trade in the world. It used to be that gold was a US story. It was, you know, pegged to the US dollar, as you said, when Nixon did the unwind; closed the window. Now, it is about a international story. And I believe that the international markets will want US dollars and gold. That’s the big paradigm shift that I don’t think the markets have woken up to.

Stig Brodersen 17:59
Wow, that’s, that’s very interesting. So let’s talk a bit more about that because as you said, you know, for generation, the truth was that…or “truth” was that the falling US dollar meant a rising gold price, and the rising US dollar and the fallen gold price. However, like you just mentioned before, we are–we might be facing a new normal. So whenever the US dollar would go up, so would gold. Could you please elaborate a bit more on that shift in paradigm?

Marin Katusa 18:28
There’s a shortage of US dollars in the international markets because of their currencies, and it’s costing the international markets more because their currencies are depreciating. And their debt is getting more expensive, and the Americans aren’t flooding the international market the way they were. The petrodollar is part of that, and there’s many other reasons why. But, you know, you look at what’s going on just in the, in the trade with China. There’s less US dollars moving into Asia. There’s less US dollars in the Middle East because of the unwind of the petrodollar, so the international markets are actually craving US dollars. And they’re starting to see that the central banks in emerging markets increasing their gold exposure, but so are the wealthy family offices.

Preston Pysh 19:07
So Marin, you had a really good 2019 in your portfolio, Katusa Research Opportunities. What were some of the key investments that drove those results?

Marin Katusa 19:16
Without a doubt, gold. In our portfolio, we’ve had two losers, and they were non gold. But on the gold and silver side, every single gold and silver pick we did was up double digits or triple digits for the year. Without a doubt, it was gold and silver. That was the call we made over a year ago. So now, what I’m working on is saying, “Hey, you know, we just…” For example, one company we were heavily involved called Pan American. It took us six months to get our position. I talked about this, The Way of the Alligator; in the way I buy: be patient; be contrarian. You know, an alligator can go a whole year without eating because it can control its metabolism. You have cash. Cash is king. These companies need cash. People who own them, for whatever reason, they may sell. And after about six months, we got picked up–our stock. And within seven months, we were up over 70%. And I told all my subscribers, “It’s time to sell the stock. Even though I don’t want to, but it’s a great gain for seven months,” and then I sell–I give my subscribers three days to sell before I do, and then, I close my position after that. So that’s kind of where we’re at. We started taking profits on things that have had incredible runs. But I do believe in the near term, it could pull back a little bit. And then, I want to be cashed up.

Stig Brodersen 20:27
So Marin, you’ve been in this space for a long time, and you’ve performed well in, in what you’ve done. And I also know that you’re big on compounding, you know? Keep on learning. So let me ask you this question: What did you learn here in 2019 that you didn’t know before; perhaps surprised you?

Marin Katusa 20:46
The biggest one was learning about the diamond markets and the opportunities there, and how my framework on how the velocity of capital truly decreased. So for example, the diamond markets, it used to be the manufacturers would get a two year loan. They would buy the rough from De Beers or Alrosa, or any of the producers, then they would go out to the the jewelers, and they had a two-year window on that loan. Then, about a year ago, it went to a one year. And then, earlier this year; in the beginning of the year, went six months. And about five months ago, it went COD, cash on delivery, and the velocity of that in a diamond market. Remember this is the high-end, and, and you know, where, and that’s to me a canary in the coal mine of, of what’s going on globally. And it really shows that my framework on this velocity; how quickly in less than 18 months, it went from two year lending to COD, cash on delivery, and it made the spot market go down about 35-45% in the rough diamonds, and how to turn the industry upside down. And I think it starts with the luxury goods, and it’ll work its way down in the markets. If you take that thesis of decreasing value–imagine what happens when, say 10% of the bonds in the corporate debt that’s valued at investment grade; let’s say triple B or higher, gets the reality of amend, extend, and pretend; if we take the framework of what we’re seeing in certain sectors happens there, that was a big wake up call for me of what could happen over the next 24-36 months in the bond market and the debt market for what people believe they’re buying investment grade, and then they find out, “Oops! When velocity slowed down, I actually own junk, not investments.” I think that to me, if I was to write a big thesis, and, and do a whole, you know, a university program about it, I think that right there is the biggest potential bomb in the markets.

Stig Brodersen 22:44
So Marin, whenever I read the December edition of Katusa’s Research Opportunities, the newsletter that we talked about here before, what I really liked was that you gone on record with ten predictions for 2020. And what you expect, and also, that you expect to be held accountable for them in December 2020, which I absolutely loved. Could you please elaborate on your highest conviction predictions?

Marin Katusa 23:09
Let’s stick with gold. I’ve had an incredible run with gold. So I’d probably say my convictions on…like I’ve talked before on, on your program about Equinox Gold. You know, one of the founders of the company; one of the largest investors in it; and I do believe, when you have people like Ross Beaty running this company, like we’re up to 50% now on that story. I’m not taking money off the table yet in that one. Whoever is listening if they’re sitting on a gain, do whatever makes you plea (*inaudible*) feel good, and sleep better. But I believe that they’re going to get to what the goal of the business was to a million ounces. I think they’re gonna continue to buy undervalued assets to get to where–when we started the company in my office. That was the thesis, I’m sticking there. And I also think with gold on the show with you, the last time we were doing this a few months ago, I talked about how I became one of the shareholders of Liberty Gold. And it’s rare for me not to take any money off the table, when you’re sitting at over 100% gain. On this one, I haven’t sold a single share because I believe they’ve stumbled upon a worldclass tier one asset. So what’s the definition of that? It’ll have 5 million ounces with the potential to have 500,000 ounces of production a year. For years, I’ve been talking about where a lot of the big companies like Barrick. There was this expansion 20 years ago or 25 years ago into the emerging markets; into the Americas; into Africa; to higher politically risky areas because they were trading at such a discount to NAV. As the market move forward, I’ve seen this opposite trend happen. When I picked up the big position in both of these companies, people weren’t devaluing the difference of being in the DRC or Argentina as the risk of being in the US; in the Great Basin like Nevada or Idaho. And I’d sit there and say, “This market is mispricing this risk.” I have nothing against the DRC, but, you know, I’ve been there and done that. I’ve traveled to over a hundred countries. And I got this philosophy that if I’m not gonna take my wife and my children to an area, I probably don’t want to be exposed to it financially either. And that’s served me very well. And I think I’ve been a little bit ahead on the curve here. And what we’re seeing is big companies like Barrick–are selling off non core assets in Africa, whether it’s in Burkina or Senegal; all these different countries that aren’t quite AK-47 nations, but they’re nowhere near to me as stable as being in Nevada or in the US in the Great Basin. But they’re priced on a risk basis, and their NAV the same. So I see a coming back home into the North America in a big way, and that’s what we’re already starting to see.

Preston Pysh 25:46
So that was outstanding, and we’ll be sure to put a link in the show notes for people to check out your free research report that you just published in December, which lays out some of your past performance and also your future projections. So let’s talk a little bit more about this: Barrick’s Gold and their deal with Saracen. That’s a deal that didn’t surprise you. So talk to us about the reason why it didn’t surprise you and maybe about any other deals that you might suspect there on the horizon.

Marin Katusa 26:12
You know, specifically with what Mark Bristow is doing at Barrick; Barrick’s the world’s largest producer gold company. And this is going to be kind of interesting to kind of show how smart this guy is. He had land gold, which is all African-based producing assets. He basically–it was a two thirds, one third. So Barrick shareholders ended up for Barrick 2.0, they own two thirds. And, you know, Mark was savvy enough to get one third, but he took over the company. And ironically, I believe what he’s gonna do is sell off his non core assets. I actually wrote in the last issue; in the December issue, the three moves I think Barrick’s gonna do, and if I was him, this is what I would do. I would sell off my non core African assets, which we see him doing. Then, I would make a play for Newmont once that joint venture is done. If he’s able to get that Nevada gold–so there’s a joint venture between Barrick and the world’s second largest producer called, Newmont, and their assets. The holy grail is in Nevada, which is called the Great Basin. That’s the holy grail, I think he’s gonna end up owning that. I also believe that Barrick’s gonna buy out Pretium, and Pretium is a very high-grade underground, very volatile variable, meaning, you know, this month’s head-grade or the grade that’s produced from mining could be eight grams. It could be 10 grams. It’s very difficult for a medium mid tier company to own such a big asset with such a variable production because the analysts don’t know if it’s going to be 8 1/2 grams or 11 grams, nor does the mining guys at site because Mother Nature so sporadic, and it’s not uniform. It’s just not a POR free, that’s a simple, uniform geology. It’s very high-grade, spotty. But if you’re a big company like Barrick, who actually has tax losses that they can put against, remember Barrick’s had other companies that they’ve had mines on. So on their balance sheet, they have an asset that is a tax loss, right? You can put that negative, let’s call it negative value of a tax loss, onto the purchase price. And now that variable, they can add on, let’s say 350 to 400,000 ounces coming out of Pretium. And it really doesn’t matter to Barrick, whether it’s 8 grams or 10 grams quarter to quarter because they produce four and a half, five million ounces. It increases their production by 10%, but that variability is not a big thing. So I think those are the two, where Barrick’s at. I also think that when you look at the Great Basin, I think gold standard ventures, whether I think that’s gonna be bought out in 2020 for the same reason. How do I break this down? Go to site, then you do another study called a PFF, a preliminary financial. And then, you kind of look at this and say, “Okay, but it’s not the next study, which is the most important one, a bankable feasibility study.” And as these companies move the asset up the food chain and derisk it, the market actually gets bored of the story because now the reality of the assets there. And that’s where you make your biggest scores if you’re patient and you know what you’re doing because now you’ve derisked your assets. And the big, like the mid tier and big companies they look at and go, “Now we have something to truly assess.” And they can see the metallurgy, the recovery rates, the true costs, you know, and all of the fine details that you don’t have as the story is growing. So I think 2020 is going to be a true M&A year, and the sweet spot are going to be companies that are either producing; that are going to be bought out like Pretium being bought out by Barrick or a company like Gold Standard that has now done the studies, and they de risked it for a bigger company to take it on because it’s all about cost of capital. You know, a one mine company, their cost of capital to go and build it. I’ve been part of teams that have built mines. Today, the cost of capital to build a single asset company, which is one mine is way more than at any point in the last 20 years in my career. So when we started Copper Mountain, which is the third largest producer in Canada, we were able to do it at let’s say, you know, at cost of capital of what would be half of today, meaning dilution to the assets. Right now, producing base metal companies are trading at .3, .4, .5 NAV. Back then, we were not producing. We were trading at .6 NAV. So the cost is half, right? That’s where if you’re a mid tier, and you have more assets, capital–remember this: less capital, the velocity of capital slowed down, so they want derisk with still upside. So the company that has four or five producing assets, their cost of capital is going to be way lower, and they’re gonna start picking off these undervalued companies like GSV, which has one major asset to put into production. That’s where we are for 2020 in my opinion.

Stig Brodersen 30:36
Now, we’ve talked about Katusa’s Resource Opportunities quite a few times here on the episode. And before we let you go, Marin, we would like to give you an opportunity to talk more about that product and what it does for the investors and the investing community. Could you please elaborate on that?

Marin Katusa 30:53
Sure. It’s more than anything, a very technical-based newsletter that I try to make fun with my experiences and stories ’cause this to me is my life, I love it. But it’s also a personal journal of you get to buy at the same time at the same price into deals with me. For example, about a year ago, you and I talked about why I was so bullish on Uranium Royalty Corp. And at the time your subscribers could get it at $1. And the financing, well, this past week, the IPO happened at $1.50. So the way, I decided to play the uranium market was pick up the royalties, when nobody wants it. And then, in five and ten years, I will have a massive score because it’s like buying gold royalties at $300. That’s where we are in uranium. Another angle was I like bringing new technology or new efficiencies. So these are creative things, and in every deal, I’m the largest investor at the same price. So I’m able to structure these things ’cause I don’t actually have that much competition in the market. So those are kind of just experiences, where we go through in the newsletter. And I talk about it. You get to see every stock. I have a film crew; I got a studio here in the city. When I do my site visits, I bring a crew. So what we do is, I bring the crew with me, and you get to go underground with me. You get to go to the open pit. You get to go into the shovels. You get to go to the refineries or the smelters. You get to see what I see, but in a fun 30-minute video, not a three-day travel, whether it’s going to Africa or up north, wherever. So it’s kind of just having fun, and we do our own thing. We only have eight companies in our portfolio. We’re very disciplined. And like I just said in the December issue, as you read, we closed a gain of 70%. It’s time to move on. And, and that’s the biggest thing is you don’t need 40 stocks in gold. It’s just pick the best five. Right, why do you need 40? Just pick the best five. And when you have a big win, sell it, and hold cash. So that’s kind of my style.

Preston Pysh 32:45
Well, folks, make sure you check out the show notes and dig into Marin’s research through the links that we’re providing. It’s outstanding stuff. Marin, we really enjoy these chats with you, and we can’t thank you enough for always making time for us.

Marin Katusa 32:58
It’s always fun.

Extro 33:00
Thank you for listening to TIP. To access our show notes, courses, or forums, go to theinvestorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only. Before making any decisions, consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by The Investor’s Podcast Network. Written permissions must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.

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