MI045: BITCOIN, COVID-19, AND MACROECONOMICS FOR BEGINNERS PART 2

W/ POMP

17 June 2020

On today’s show, Robert Leonard chats with Anthony Pompliano, better known as “Pomp,” for part two of this two-part series all about Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency landscape, macroeconomics, and the history of money from a beginner’s perspective. Pomp is the former Head of Growth at both Snapchat and Facebook, and is currently the Co-Founder & Partner at Morgan Creek Digital.

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IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

  • What Bitcoin is.
  • Why Bitcoin is the winner in the cryptocurrency space.
  • How Bitcoin is being impacted by COVID-19.
  • What the macroeconomic landscape currently is.
  • How money has evolved overtime and led to Bitcoin.
  • And much, much more!

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TRANSCRIPT

Disclaimer: The transcript that follows has been generated using artificial intelligence. We strive to be as accurate as possible, but minor errors and slightly off timestamps may be present due to platform differences.

Robert Leonard  00:02

On today’s show, Pomp and I finish our conversation for this two-part series all about Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, and the history of money. If you haven’t listened to last week’s episode yet, I highly recommend you go listen to that one before you start listening to this one. For today’s episode, we dive right into the conversation where we left off last week.

Intro  00:23

You’re listening to Millennial Investing by The Investor’s Podcast Network, where your host, Robert Leonard, interviews successful entrepreneurs, business leaders, and investors to help educate and inspire the millennial generation.

Robert Leonard  00:46

I think that’s a perfect example of where traditional financial education almost comes back to hurt us because when you think about it, in school, everyone’s taught that volatility is the way to quantify risk. So, when you see this type of volatility, your mind, that’s been trained for 4-8 years, automatically thinks of the risk, where, really, the risk for Bitcoin is it going to zero, not necessarily the volatility. Bitcoin’s volatility introduces opportunity, just like you said.

Pomp  01:13

Here’s a great thing. I’ve got the pleasure of being able to talk to a lot of people way smarter than me, who have decades of experience across macroeconomics and investing. I always ask them little questions to try to pull the real core of what makes them great. I have come to understand some things I didn’t before. One, the best investors seek out volatility. They actually run to the volatility because volatility means opportunity. If something just stays stable, like the dollar, and it’s pretty stable all the time, there’s not that much opportunity to find dislocations in the market. You need volatility to drive returns. That’s lesson one.

The second lesson, a friend of mine recently told me, is that the very best investors are only right 55-60% at the time. One would have thought they were right 90% of the time, but they’re only right 55-60% of the time.

The average investor is wrong more than they’re right. But these billionaire investors can make so much money because they only make bets when there’s a lot of asymmetrical return profile. They’ll enter an investment that could either potentially lose 20% of their money if everything goes absolutely horrible. But if it works how they think it will, they would potentially have a 5x increase in money. So, 20% downside, 500% upside. They will do that deal all day long because it’s asymmetric. The payoff is much higher than the risk, and there’s a capital risk on the bottom side. So, if you’re only right 55% of the time, in the probability that you’re right, you make so much money that it more than makes up for the 45% of the time that you’re wrong.

I think that a lot of investors are really told, “Go seek safety. Go seek the things that are really easy.” Now, actually, that’s good advice for 90+% of people. If you’re not a macro investor, you don’t understand nor have the time to analyze all of these super asymmetric nuanced investment ideas, and so your best bet is just to use the trend. Save in the S&P, which is compounded at 8-9% a year for 50 years. That’s much easier and gives much more peace of mind. For the best people, the professionals, the people who kind of really make a lot of money, they seek out those highly-volatile asymmetric opportunities because they know what the risk on the downside is, and it’s so attractive from a risk-reward standpoint that they can’t help themselves.

Robert Leonard  03:39

Is there any way that you’ve learned to help a millennial listening to the show to deal with the volatility? They’re interested in this topic, are passionate about it, and they want to learn about it. They’re reading the books. They’re listening to the podcast. They want to be involved with these types of assets. They don’t want to just dump it in the S&P 500. But they’re just new to all the volatility. How can they cope with that? What is the best way to deal with that?

Pomp  04:04

There are two big ideas that I share with people. The first is: What are the secrets to getting rich? This is always the disappointing part of the conversation as there are four rules: (1) Spend less than you make; (2) have multiple streams of income; (3) get out of inflationary assets into deflationary assets; and (4) be super patient and disciplined, and use the time to your advantage, especially if you’re a young person. Compounding growth is your friend. Those four rules are literally on any personal finance book. They’re in there because they work, and it’s almost too boring. I think that’s important to take away.

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Now, when it comes to volatility, what I tell people is that the best investors in the world don’t look at the price every day. Most of them are actually not looking at the price. The people who do look at the price every day have computers doing the trading for them, so they’re quant funds. If you think of Warren Buffett, Jeff Bezos, or any of these guys, they’re all super long-term thinkers. They’ll spend the time to make an investment decision based on a thesis that they double and triple-checked, and have done all the work on. They have conviction in the idea, they’ll put the investment on, and they walk away. They don’t look at the price every day. That requires something that our society is not very good at. You have to have the discipline to do the work upfront, and you have to have the conviction, even if the trade goes against you, at first, to really have a belief that this is going to work. There’s power in not getting caught up in the panic on the way down or the FOMO on the way up, and being disciplined.

There are a lot of books around investing psychology. Bill Perkins told me, “Investing is a psychology game.” It’s a psychology test, and I think for a lot of people, you have to remind yourself of that every day. Take a deep breath. Get away from the screen. Don’t worry about the stock market. I think that that comes with patience and maturity and experience, but I do think that that’s probably the number one way to deal with volatility. Don’t subject yourself to it because you, as a human, are flawed, and you will succumb to the emotion and the lack of psychological control that every human has.

Robert Leonard  06:17

I agree completely. Thinking long term is the best way to get rid of that volatility. I’m looking at the chart of Bitcoin right now. Only over a month, and that’s not long term by any means, it doesn’t look volatile, really. If you zoom in, of course, it does; and if you zoom out, it looks less volatile. But the problem is that a lot of younger people want things right away. They start to day-trade or these short-term trades, and they’re watching it every day, and their emotions are at them every day rather than every couple of months when you’re looking at your portfolio. 

I think the best thing you can do is to take a step back. Stop looking at your portfolio. If you want to learn about this stuff every day, I think studying it and reading books is great. Do that every single day. Just don’t open your Fidelity nor Vanguard account every day. That’s gonna hurt you. 

Pomp  07:02

I’ve been there. I usually don’t tell the story. When I came back from the military, I went to college. I made a little bit of money in the army, so I started day trading. I was day trading foreign currencies, and I think I turned like $9,000 at one point into, like, $70,000, and I thought I was going to be the biggest gangster on Wall Street, and that I was going to do it from a classroom in college. I had a whole system. I was probably more sophisticated than most in what I was doing, but I got cocky. I started trading on my phone, and I started to lose money.

Thankfully, I still walked away with enough money made. I had realized I probably should stop doing what I was doing, even if I didn’t have seven times my money as I had originally had. That taught me that there are some people who are traders, who’ve got the skill for it and are very educated in it. They’ve got experience, and they like doing it. I’m not one of those people.

If you’re not somebody who wants to day trade or has a skill for day trading, you have to understand what you’re good at. It’s like playing sports. Some people are really good at playing basketball. They’re 6’6″. Of course, that gives them a better position to play basketball. They probably are not as good at soccer because their footwork sucks. You have to understand what you’re set up to do. If you’re not a day trader, what can you do?

08:10

There are two key lessons that investors learn over time. One, asset allocation may sometimes be more important than the individual investments you make. Simply being in the right markets, regardless of the exact investment you make, can make up for a lot of mistakes. If you sit down and say, “I want 10% of my assets in real estate, 20% in the stock market, I want 30% in bonds…” That decision may be more important than, “Which stocks do I buy?” In the recent days of the stock market, everything went up. It was pretty hard to lose money in the stock market when it goes up 20%. I think that asset allocation doesn’t get enough focus. There’s a great book by David Swensen, CIO of Yale, around asset allocation and portfolio construction that I highly recommend people read about that.

08:53

Secondly, a lot of people forget when investing is that the price at which you buy an asset, largely determines the return that you’re going to drive. If you and I look at a piece of real estate, and I buy it at $200,000 and you buy it at $300,000, but in five years it’s worth $300,000. I would have made all the money because I bought it for $200,000. Same example, but let’s say it’s worth $400,000. You’d make $100,000 since you bought at $300,000 and sold at $400,000. But since I bought it at $200,000, and sold it at $400,000, I made double the money you made simply because I bought it at a better price. That applies to every single asset class.

A lot of people get caught up due to the FOMO aspect. “Oh my god, it’s running. I have to invest.” But if you can be patient and understand that if you buy at the right price, control your emotions, and only invest when there’s a very high asymmetry, your deals are going to go up a lot, and not down that much, in the worst case. That’s really the way that you make money. The hard part is that when you’re young, you think that you’re the next day trader. You think you’re going to put a thousand dollars in, and you’re going to walk away as a millionaire. There’s a reason why a lot of people don’t do that. It’s super hard to do.

Robert Leonard  10:01

It’s funny that you shared that story because that’s how I got into investing, as well. I wasn’t in Forex, but I was in day trading. You may be familiar with Timothy Sykes. He had Facebook ads that drew me into day trading. I almost say that I was lucky that I didn’t even make any money because then I didn’t continue to do it. I quickly found Warren Buffett and ended up where I am today. But yeah, it’s funny, I started down the same path. I’ll definitely put links to David Swensen’s books in the show notes. I agree that those are good reads.

Now, I’d say it’s probably pretty clear that you’re bullish on Bitcoin, but what would someone on the other side of the argument say? What are the bearish saying about Bitcoin?

Pomp  10:39

We’ve already touched on a number of the things. First of all, they would say Bitcoin is not backed by anything. From the Bitcoin perspective, neither is the US dollar, to some degree. Another response to that would be that it’s actually backed by the most secure largest computer network in the world. Definitely, one of the arguments is that Bitcoin’s not backed by anything.

10:57

Another argument is that if you don’t believe it’s a currency, but you look at it as an asset, it’s a non-cash-producing asset. A lot of people who don’t like gold, for example, don’t like Bitcoin because it doesn’t produce anything.

There are people that understand digital currencies that would say, “It’s not as fast. It has technical challenges compared to other things.” There are definitely people who think the technical components of it are more important than the belief of the monetary policy, and so on. We already talked about that. There are a lot of people who just say, “You guys might be completely right, but the government will never allow it. The government’s going to come in and stop all this nonsense, so stop with the child’s play.” I think that that’s definitely a detraction.

11:33

Lastly, I think that there’s a lot of people who just say, “It’s unproven or super volatile.” They argue about the lack of stability or long track record. I think that there’s merit there. Yes, that is true, but that’s also why the opportunity exists.

If you take each one of those detractions and almost put an equal weighting on them, if those things are disproven, then there is an increase in value. And because the opportunity is derisked, more people desire this asset. That’s ultimately what the opportunity is, right? If you believe that those things aren’t actually risks while everyone else does, and you get comfortable and buy something, if, in fact, those things end up not being risks in the future and convinces people, you benefit from both having believed and taking the risk before everybody else.

Now, again, there are risks, and one of those things may end up actually being fatal or just a large obstacle to overcome. That’s where people have to remember the beauty of markets. You take risks to get rewards, but that doesn’t come without the risk. In the recent stock market downturn, I think people, especially the younger ones, got reminded of that. Their whole lives, the stock market just went up, and it was awesome and they could buy pretty much anything, and it would just go up. They got reminded they could lose money, and that was scary. You have to understand the risks that are obviously taken. But if you make smart investments, then there are the rewards you can capture.

Robert Leonard  12:55

Yeah, I talk about that a lot on the show. A lot of the people that listen to the show, and myself, have only invested in a bull market. I was too young to invest in 2007-2009, and everything since then has been pretty great as you said.

Pomp  13:08

It’s fantastic!

Robert Leonard  13:09

Yeah, it really doesn’t get much better than that. I think it’s been a big wake up call for a lot of people. I think that was a great point. You mentioned government regulation. What happens if the government does try to step in?

Pomp  13:20

We have some precedent for this. A lot of people don’t know that in 1933, the government banned ownership of gold. They literally stepped in and said that if you own gold, give it up. United States citizens are not allowed to own gold. I won’t get into all the details, but it’s important to know that that happened. There are people who believe that if Bitcoin becomes something much more material than it is today, the government would do the same thing.

The difference is that, in today’s digital world, if one government steps in, outlaws and our bans it, especially if it was the United States, if every other country says otherwise, all of a sudden, a massive risk will be put on the US dollar-denominated global reserve currency.

Take Russia and China, for example. They hate the dollar system. They hate the fact that the US dollar is the global reserve currency. It’s “expensive” to them. That’s the word that they normally use. It’s expensive for two reasons.

Literally, one of your adversaries, in many cases, controls the currency that you’re using for international trade. They can manipulate the currency and do all kinds of things that screw around with you, and you’re not in control, so you don’t like them. The second thing is that they can sanction you. If you’re a bank, and you allow anyone from China or Russia or North Korea to use dollars through your bank, the government is going to basically kick you out or arrest you or do whatever.

So, if the US government steps in and bans Bitcoin immediately, I think many of those other countries would say, “Wait a minute. There’s a currency that we could use that they can’t manipulate and won’t let anyone use from their country? We should adopt that right now so that we can get off their system.” There will be a game theory at play. There are people way smarter than me who spent way more time thinking about how all those game theories play out, but if you just do Google searches around the government, ban ownership, bitcoin, or so, you’ll find a bunch of pieces that people have written.

Ultimately, it comes down to one country’s loss being another country’s gain. The belief is that it would be very, very difficult for them to ban it as an individual country. That parlays into: What if they all banded together? To that, I always joke, and say, “If you’re betting on Russia, China, the United States, India, etc, all working together, I got a bridge to sell you, and a whole bunch of other stuff.” There’s just a very, very low likelihood of that happening. Yes, it’s possible, but there’s a lot of other things I’d bet on before global coordination between those superpowers.

Robert Leonard  15:42

Yeah, it’s funny you say that because I was going to say the exact same thing. I haven’t read a ton about it, but one of the things I did read is that every country in the world would have to essentially ban it at the same time in order for it to not work for all the reasons that you just said. But, if just the US bans it, couldn’t it just be as simple as somebody in the US getting a VPN, and still transacting with Bitcoin that way?

It’s a prohibition, right? They banned alcohol but didn’t really stop people from drinking. Now, did it make it more dangerous? Yes. Did it definitely dampen the interest in some subsets of the population? For sure. But ultimately, the war on drugs hasn’t been as effective as people think it has. It’s actually just changed the dynamics of that market. Many people would argue that the price would drop if they legalized rather than artificially inflated prices because it’s illegal. There is this idea that to access Bitcoin, all you need is an internet connection. That’s a very powerful idea.

Pomp  16:36

I think if the government actually went to the extreme measure of banning ownership, it would take steps to try to shut down US-based exchanges. They would take pretty extensive measures to make sure that it was enforced. Those reasons, though, make up another argument as to why they won’t do it. It really just comes down to the opportunity cost. If you spend much time doing this, you’re pretty much admitting that Bitcoins going to replace the dollar as the global reserve currency. Many in the Bitcoin community would argue like, “Well, we already won.” We’re far away from any of that ever even entering conversation or kind of really being taken seriously. It may become a serious conversation at some point, but I just think it’s unlikely to happen.

Robert Leonard  17:16

I recorded a two-part episode all about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency with Preston not too long ago. After that episode aired, a lot of people became really interested in it. They really liked the conversation, but a lot of them had questions about how to actually buy crypto assets and how to do it safely. So, I want to have a quick practical conversation with you. For someone who’s never purchased a cryptocurrency before, what are the steps? How do they do it? Where do they start? And what is the finish line? How do they go through that process?

Pomp  17:43

There are a couple of different ways that they can do it. My first advice is to not buy any of material size in your portfolio until you’ve educated yourself. To me, that’s step one. The second step is that once you know enough to say to somebody else what Bitcoin is, buy worth $50 or $100. You should do that to get the actual experience of going through the product, holding the Bitcoin, and maybe even send it to somebody. It’s like if I tell you about Tic Toc, maybe I can explain it to you, but until you use it, you don’t actually know what it is. It’s the same thing with Bitcoin, but since you only invested $50 to $100, if you screw up, it’s not going to break you.

Also, doing that will get your skin in the game. If you start with $100 in Bitcoin, you’re going to pay attention to what’s going on with Bitcoin. I have a brother who’s 23, and literally, he started by buying at $100. He looked at it almost every day, and study what goes on with it. I think that’s step one.

Step two is you can get exposure in two main ways. You can go buy Bitcoin itself, similar to how you could buy gold, or you could go buy the equivalent of a gold ETF, which in Bitcoin is a publicly-traded stock that has direct exposure to Bitcoin.

18:50

In the public markets, you could buy something called GBTC. It’s the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. I have 100% of my retirement account in GBTC. I can’t actually hold Bitcoin itself in my retirement account, so I had to buy a public stock that has direct exposure to Bitcoin. That’s one path to pursue.

The second path, which I suggest for most people listening to this, is to sign up for a cryptocurrency exchange. There’s a ton of them in the United States. You can go online on Gemini, Coinbase, Kraken, BlockFi, etc. They’re usually pretty reputable and have millions of customers. They’ve been around for a long time and have venture capital backers. These are legitimate exchanges that are very popular, and they’re popular for a reason. The community has vetted them as being real. If you’re looking at an exchange, and you ask somebody that is familiar with crypto, if they’ve never heard of it, don’t use it. It’s a good rule.

When you go on those platforms, it’s just like signing up for a Robinhood or Venmo account. You go on the platform and create an account. They might have a verification step, and then you’re basically able to put dollars in and convert those to bitcoins. Just go on an exchange and, like buying a stock, say, “I want some Bitcoin.” The difference is that, with stocks, traditionally, you have to buy one share. If Amazon’s trading at $2,000, you have to spend $2,000 to get a share. You can’t say I want $100 with Amazon. With Bitcoin, you can actually buy fractional ownership. You can buy $1 or $20 of Bitcoin, or $8,500 to get a whole Bitcoin. So, when you go on whatever exchange you end up choosing, that’s really what you’ve got to do: figure out how much dollars you want to put in. Then, you get the fractional ownership of that Bitcoin.

Robert Leonard  20:33

You mentioned Robinhood, and I’m glad you did because I wanted to ask you about that. A lot of people, especially millennials, want to use Robinhood to buy Bitcoin. I’ve heard that that might not be the best thing to do. Why might Robinhood not be the best platform to use to buy Bitcoin?

Pomp  20:47

The three biggest issues that I see people have with any exchange are: One, what are the fees that I’m charged? There are some exchanges that just have egregious rates, like 2% every time you buy. There are better exchanges, so don’t waste your money on those high fees.

Two, they might have a spread. They might be buying Bitcoin for $100, but they’re selling it to you on the platform at $500. You don’t know that that exists unless you read the documentation. If that spread’s really wide, you could go somewhere else and buy the Bitcoin for at $100.

Finally, three, there may be issues around controller withdrawals. There’s a saying in the Bitcoin community that goes, “Not your keys, not your coins.” If you go back to that example of when I deposit dollars in the bank, it’s not my dollars anymore, and I get an IOU, there are a lot of people in crypto that believe in something called sovereignty. They actually want to control it. There is a very technical process of getting access to your Bitcoin and actually holding it yourself. It’s not an exchange. Just google around for kind of how to do that. There are plenty of guides, but I think that the withdrawal component can be a problem, as well, as if I buy on a platform, they won’t let me pull out my full Bitcoin all at once. I have to do it over five days or two weeks or so. People like that quick access to their assets, so that may be the third problem.

Robert Leonard  22:04

Yeah, I think it might be that last problem that you mentioned with Robin Hood because I’ve heard that you don’t actually own the Bitcoin when you buy it on Robin Hood. I don’t think you can withdraw it and put it in your own wallet or things like that.

Pomp  22:14

Okay, so there are two pieces to that then. If you can’t ever withdraw, that is different from most exchanges. Most exchanges will allow you to buy it and withdraw it to your digital wallet. But if they’re saying, “You don’t own your Bitcoin,” Every single cryptocurrency exchange you go on, if you buy Bitcoin on there, and don’t withdraw to a digital wallet, you do not own that Bitcoin. The exchange actually has control of the Bitcoin. Unless you’re trusting that exchange, that’s mainly why I say to use the reputable ones. There have been examples in the past where there are no-name exchanges. People go on there, create an account, put dollars in, buy some bitcoins, leave the Bitcoin on the exchange, and then find that the exchange ends up being fraudulent. And so, work with reputable players just like you would in any other market.

Robert Leonard  23:00

I’ve also heard that it’s not necessarily the safest thing to publicly talk about which exchanges and wallets you’re using. Is that the case?

Pomp  23:09

It’s just like anything, right? You don’t go around telling people how much money you have in your bank account. It’s probably not a good idea. At the same time, most people don’t want to tell others where they bank unless you’re talking to friends behind closed doors. It’s a similar thing.

The other thing to understand with Bitcoin is something called a bearer asset. If I hack into your Bank of America account and steal your money, there’s FDIC insurance. Bank of America is going to give you the money, the government will back that up, and they’ll be able to catch me as a criminal. With Bitcoin, if I steal your Bitcoin, I have control of that Bitcoin, and they can’t reverse the transaction. The same thing applies if you send a wire at your bank, and you send it to the wrong account number. Being Americans, we can say that we made a mistake, and have the bank send the money back, so you can send it to the right person. There’s a system.

In a decentralized system, if you accidentally sent me a Bitcoin, but you meant to send it to somebody else, I won’t even know who you are. I just got more Bitcoin, all of a sudden, on my hand. It’s scary at times, especially if you’re sending any real amount of money in Bitcoin, so make sure you’re sending it to the right person. You also want to have control over those bitcoins to make sure that there’s no nefarious activity, like hacking, etc.

24:52

The biggest lesson that a lot of people in crypto learn is an issue with two-factor authentication. Usually, for two-factor authentication, if I sign up with my email and forget my password, they have my cell phone number on file, to which they’ll text a code to that I can plug in to recover my password. That text message with a code is the second factor of authentication in order to get into a system. A concern is that somebody can go and do something called a sim swap. They can basically get control of your phone, text themselves the number, and get into the system without you knowing about it. To protect yourself, what you want to do is to make sure you have the two-factor authentication on, but use another email, or you want to use something like Authy, an application that has two-factor authentication that can’t really be hacked.

Robert Leonard  25:15

Yeah, that’s exactly what I did when I set up my account. I used a second app to create a code that produced that second-factor authentication anytime I logged into my exchange or wallet.

Pomp  25:27

The most valuable thing I can tell people is to set up two-factor authentication, and not use your cell phone number.

Robert Leonard  25:32

Yeah. You made a point about transferring between people and even yourself, from the exchange to your wallet, it’s nerve-racking because, as you said, if you’re one digit off,  it’s going to someone else, they won’t know who gave it to them, and you’re essentially out of that money.

I remember when I first bought my first Bitcoin back in March. I was making that transfer from the exchange to my wallet, and I was nervous to hit that send button. As I was waiting for it to do the transfer, I kept refreshing and waiting for it. Thankfully it did. So, if you guys are going to buy anything, make sure, be 110% or 200% sure that you have the right information when you’re doing the transfer.

I want to talk about the wallets. What is the difference between a digital and a physical wallet?

Pomp  26:13

There are a couple of things here. When we talk about a digital wallet, it’s a wallet or a bank account that holds digital assets, whether that’s Bitcoin, Ether, or anything else that holds digital tokens or assets. When it comes to a physical storage device or a digital one, physical storage devices are almost like USB flash disks. It’s an actual thing that you would put files in. You could put music, your PowerPoint presentation, or Bitcoin on there. That’s the general idea. You can literally take your Bitcoin from an exchange and put it onto a physical device, in which it is highly secure because you have control over it.

A digital wallet is similar except you’re not keeping it in a physical device. You’re keeping a piece of software that you, and you alone, have access to. It’s like your iTunes. You have music files there on your iTunes, that no one else can access to unless you give them the password. But don’t give anyone your password to your digital wallet. That’s really the difference between a digital wallet and a physical wallet. They hold the same assets, but hold different types of security and cater to different personal preferences.

Robert Leonard  27:20

How does this entire conversation relate back to millennials and their investing? Do you think they should be allocating a portion of their portfolio to cryptocurrencies? Are they better off sticking to more tried and trued assets like ETFs and stocks?

Pomp  27:35

Forget Bitcoin for a second. I’ve talked to a lot of young people. I’m 31 years old approaching 32 years old, and I’ve got four younger brothers. I talked to each one of them about mindset. When you’re in your 20s, there are two key things that I think everyone needs to understand. One, your greatest asset is time. Literally, if you start compounding interest at 22 and 32 till you’re 60, there’s a massive difference, and I can’t buy back that time. Compounding growth is your friend, and you need to leverage that to your advantage.

The second key is to take risks. When I look back on all the things around that I was doing in my mid-20s and late 20s, I realize  I could have lost everything and it would have been perfectly fine. It’s almost like I should have taken more risk than I actually did, from an investing standpoint. Today, it’s public knowledge, but I’ve got more than 50% of my net worth in Bitcoin. Infamously, when I went on CNBC, Kevin O’Leary from Shark Tank literally said to me, “I forbid you from doing that.” His thoughts were, “Why would you ever take that much risk?” My logic behind it is that I have an end date for the risk. I’m 32 years old and am willing to take this risk until I’m 35 years old. I’m also willing to lose 50% of my net worth on something that has a very asymmetric upside. That also means that the other 50% of my portfolio is very non-risky.

I think people need to understand that the younger you are, the more compound growth you have on your side, and, also, the more risk you can take because you have a longer period of time to make it back. It wouldn’t make sense for a 70-year-old to go put 50% of their net worth in Bitcoin because they’re basically screwed if it doesn’t work.

I think those are the two key lessons for people. Obviously, Bitcoin fits in that risky bucket still, but it should fit in a more portfolio construction type of mindset. It’s not just a matter of buying Bitcoin or not. It really is the philosophical stance of how I should actually construct my portfolio.

Robert Leonard  29:36

That goes back to the asset allocation point that we talked about before. It’s all about asset allocation and allocating a little bit more riskily because we are younger. That’s exactly how I allocate my portfolio. I run a very concentrated portfolio. I talk about that a lot on the show. I’m okay with that risk, volatility, and the upside. I’m 25 years old, so I have a long time until I really need that money. If it goes down a lot, I have the time for it to come back. So yeah, absolutely.

You mentioned GBTC before. When you buy a gold ETF, are there some risks in terms of owning that ETF as you’re not actually owning the underlying gold? Are there similar risks and issues with owning GBTC? Also, you mentioned you have a lot of your net worth in Bitcoin. Do you mess with any other cryptocurrencies or are you strictly on Bitcoin?

Pomp  30:25

I own no other cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s the only cryptocurrency that I own. In terms of GBTC, there are a couple of key pieces. There’s definitely the risk as you described, in like GLD, for example. You don’t actually own the gold, you don’t own the Bitcoin. I’ve done GBTC because it’s money in the IRA. I can’t get exposure directly to Bitcoin, so this is kind of the next best thing. It allows me to do that in a tax-advantaged way.

The one big risk that does come with GBTC, which is also an advantage, is that there’s a premium. When you’re buying GBTC in the public market, there is a premium. That premium can be 2%, 5%, 10%, or even 50+%. You’ve got to be comfortable with that as long as that premium doesn’t disappear, then you’ll be okay.

If for some reason, an ETF like Bitcoin ETF got approved and the premium for GBTC disappeared, there actually could be a loss not in the fund, but that premium goes away. If there’s a 10% premium, it would show up as a 10% loss for you, even though the number of Bitcoin actually didn’t change. The premium can be negative. A positive note for buying an ETF with a premium when you buy it, say 10%, and then all of a sudden the premium goes to 50%, you actually benefit from there being an expansion of the premium.

Think of premium as a factor for multiple expansion versus multiple contractions. I would say that’s probably the biggest risk, but I see a lot of people unaware of it when they go to buy something like that. Again, because I’m buying it through an IRA, I’m comfortable with that risk, one. Two, it’s in a tax-advantaged situation, so it makes a lot of sense for me to do that because I can’t get exposure to an actual underlying Bitcoin itself.

Robert Leonard  32:02

I’m also a big real estate investor. In that space, we talked about having SDIRAs (self-directed IRA) a lot, where you can buy real estate. I thought of it to buy cryptocurrencies and investing startups. Is that a type of account, like a retirement account, that you could potentially use instead of your IRA to buy Bitcoin directly?

Pomp  32:20

There are definitely retirement accounts that are self-directed that you can do it in. With the specific one that I have, I can’t. Frankly, I’m not an expert on it. I don’t even remember what the reasoning behind it is. I just remember that people who were in charge of telling me what to do said you can’t do that, so I said, “Okay. What’s the next best thing?” But there are definitely accounts with which you can buy directly. Exposure is obviously much easier to do outside of those retirement accounts than it is inside of them because of all the rules there. I think there are organizations that have been created where you can contribute your IRA contribution through their platform with the sole purpose of buying Bitcoin, and they’re literally there to facilitate as a Bitcoin-IRA type thing, but I’m not familiar with them. I can’t say whether it’s a good idea or a bad idea, but they definitely exist.

Robert Leonard  33:04

I’m sure you have a good panel behind you, giving you great information to make your decisions.

Thanks so much for coming on the show today and sharing all your knowledge. I have loved this conversation. I know everyone in the audience is going to, as well. A lot of people that are part of our community, our Facebook group, and also that follow me on social media are big fans of you, and they were super excited for this episode to come out. I know they’re all gonna love it as well. Where can the audience go to learn more about you?

Pomp  33:30

First of all, thank you for having me. This is a lot of fun, and I enjoy talking about this stuff, so thank you.

I would say the two places are Twitter, @APompliano, and YouTube. We’ve been pumping out a lot of interviews and things like that. If you just search my name, Anthony Pompliano, on YouTube, you’ll find the channel and can watch all that content there.

Robert Leonard  33:55

I’ll be sure to put links to all of his resources, everything he’s got going on, in the show notes. Be sure to connect with him there. You guys will want to learn all the information that he’s putting out there. Thanks so much.

Pomp  34:06

Yeah, man. Listen, I really appreciate it, Robert. I love what you’re doing, and we’ll do it again sometime.

Robert Leonard  34:09

All right, guys! That wraps up this two-part series with Pomp. Follow me on Instagram, @therobertleonard, or on Twitter, @robertattip, and let me know what you thought of these two episodes. I’d love to hear your feedback about the two-part series format. I’d love to know if you guys prefer longer episodes that are over an hour being split into shorter 30-  to 40-minute episodes in a two-part series like this. Do you guys like it? I’ll be sure to do more of it in the future. If not, we’ll stick to the normal one-episode format, even if they’re a bit longer. But, that’s all I had for this week’s episode. I hope to see you guys again next week!

Outro  34:52

Thank you for listening to TIP. To access the show notes, courses, or forums, go to theinvestorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only. Before making any decisions, consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by The Investor’s Podcast Network. Written permissions must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.

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