TIP186: THE BITCOIN DEBATE (PART II)

W/ TUUR DEMEESTER & ERIK TOWNSEND

14 April 2018

This is part II of our Crypto Debate.  In one corner we have Tuur Demeester. Tuur has been an investor in Bitcoin since the early days when one coin was only $5. Since his initial position, Bitcoin has grown by 132,000%. Tuur has a huge following with over 159,000 twitter followers because of his in-depth ideas and comments about cryptocurrencies. On the other side of the argument, we have the talented Erik Townsend. Erik is the host of a very popular investing podcast called Macro Voices. Erik got his start as a computer programmer and by the age of 17, he was already an independent software development and design consultant. Erik is an entrepreneur that has built successful tech companies and he’s also the founder of his own global macro hedge fund.

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IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

  • Why and how a new government-controlled cryptocurrency might close down tax havens.
  • Why history shows that governments might eventually accept Bitcoin.
  • How to understand the features of the Lightning Network.

TRANSCRIPT

Disclaimer: The transcript that follows has been generated using artificial intelligence. We strive to be as accurate as possible, but minor errors and slightly off timestamps may be present due to platform differences.

Preston Pysh
On this week’s show, we continue our Bitcoin and crypto debate with Erik Townsend and Tuur Demeester.

If you missed the first part of our conversation, you’ll definitely want to go back and listen to Episode 185. First, because some of the comments might not make sense or be a little bit confusing if you start right here. If you’re ready to start the second part episode, sit back, and we hope you enjoy it.

Intro
You are listening to The Investor’s Podcast where we study the financial markets and read the books that influenced self-made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected.

I’m sure both of you guys see vulnerabilities or weaknesses or issues with moving forward with Bitcoin. I kind of want to highlight that both of you think that those concerns are.

Erik, since you’re the main critic, you can lead this one. What’s wrong with Bitcoin and why do you think that it’s not here to stay?

Erik Townsend 0:28
Well, ironically, I think that the biggest criticisms I have of Bitcoin are actually its biggest features. I happen to love those features. Let’s start with what those are.

Bitcoin is designed so that you make a payment and that payment is persistent. It’s a done deal. Nobody can undo it. There’s no charge back where the bank decides to unwind the transaction. Once you’ve been paid, you’ve been paid. It’s solid. Nobody can unwind it.

That also means governments cannot tax, control or monitor your transactions. They can actually monitor the transactions on the Bitcoin network, but it’s anonymous. They don’t know who owns the wallets. There’s no way for them to seize the wallets. There’s no way for them to freeze accounts or void transactions, or claw back transactions. It’s all designed to prevent governments from doing any of those things.

I think unfortunately, those are all the reasons that it will be outlawed. Now, again, just to go on record, I personally hope to be proven dead wrong on this. I would love to see Bitcoin be successful at providing a payment system that protects the good people of the world from the overreach of government power.

However, I don’t think it’s going to happen. I think that governments are going to design the opposite system, which does everything the opposite of how Bitcoin does it. So everything is controllable by the government, everything is feasible. Everything is controllable, everything is reversible, everything is under government control.

As soon as they begin to build that system that implements those features, I predict that they will outlaw Bitcoin. There will be safe havens that like Bitcoin and say you can do your Bitcoin transactions here…

What I think eventually happens is the other governments of the world will come back and say, “Look, we’re going to build this global payment system. It’s going to replace the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. It is going to be the new currency in which all sovereign debt is denominated. Governments are going to control the whole thing. Among other things, what we’re going to do is finally solve this problem of tax havens around the world.”

So every transaction on the global payment system has to have the tax ID of the payer, and the payee of every transaction. Guess what? That means that you’ve got to have a country code. Think of it like a phone number that has a country code at the beginning of it.

If it’s US, that’s going to be plus one is your country code for US. Then it’s your social security number. If you’re in the UK, it’s whatever their tax ID number is. If you are in the Cayman Islands, I think that the rest of the world is going to say, “Guess what? We recognize the Cayman Islands as a tax haven. We’re tired of their crap. We’re not going to let you use a Cayman Islands ID. We know you weren’t really born there. You’re going to have to use the tax ID of the country you were born in and not the one that you naturalized in later in order to avoid taxes.”

I think that they will cite one of the main features of this new government’s control the digital currency system, as basically solving the problem of drug dealers and terrorists financing their dirty dealings with cryptocurrency.

They’re going to label Bitcoin as the tool of terrorists. Then they’re going to say, ‘We can solve the problem of tax havens, we can finally make the 1% that is cheating you by not paying their fair share of taxes accountable. We’re going to nail the tax cheats by eliminating these things, and then suddenly, those safe haven countries like the Cayman Islands will have to play ball in order to participate in the global payment system.”

Again, I absolutely don’t like anything that I’m saying. I think it’s a really horrible outcome for civilization if I’m right.

Unfortunately, I think the governments have the power, the wherewithal and the desire to do the things that I’m describing.

Preston Pysh 4:58
Erik, I had a long position. n Bitcoin. We did an episode back in 2015. I took a position in Bitcoin. I held it clear up till December of 2017. I sold my position in December.

I had a substantial tax bill that I had to pay. You better believe I paid the tax bill because I don’t want to have to deal with that chaos. I think that other Americans or other people that have been dealing in cryptocurrencies, if they had a large tax bill, they paid their tax bill.

For me, whenever I thought through the situation, not that I would ever not pay my tax bill, but it’s like, they know exactly what’s happening with these exchanges that are operating. I think the only tax loophole here to your point for people is if they’re mining Bitcoins. They’re not doing it through a pool.

They’re receiving bitcoins straight off of the blockchain and no one knows that they’re operating that address. That’s pretty much the only way that you’re able to do something. The government would never be able to track that, but if you’re dealing with an exchange, the government’s are tracking all that.

I’m sure the government collected a hefty amount of taxes from people that have been dealing with cryptocurrencies here in the United States in the past year.

I’m curious, do you think that maybe the exchanges are the points where the government’s will allow this because that’s where they can basically keep track of people that are making money and people that are losing money?

Erik Townsend 6:21
Well, from a tactical standpoint, first of all, historically, IRS records indicate that very, very few people have been responsible as you were in paying their tax bills.

What they’re starting to do is they’re using the exchanges as the point of control that they are surveilling in order to try to keep people accountable to those tax liabilities.

I think you’re absolutely right, but I see this is very small… Tight now, kind of chapter in the story. Longer term, everything Bitcoin is set to do, governments have a much bigger agenda, which is they want to eliminate tax havens globally. They want to get to the point where everybody on Earth, whatever wealth they have, the government knows exactly how much you have. They know exactly where you got it and who you got it from, to the penny, on the date, tracking every transaction that ever occurred, that allowed you to have anything.

They will tell you that in order to protect everyone from terrorism, it’s necessary for them to know that information. I think that they will set out to build a global payment system, a global currency system, which is designed to achieve that goal of the government knows every penny of wealth that exists on Earth, who owns it, where they got it from, who gave it to them and why.

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Stig Brodersen 7:35
Tuur, I think the audience is curious to know how a proponent of Bitcoin sees this somewhat bleak future that Erik painted.

Tuur Demeester 7:44
I think, in general, if you really like to look at things from the long term perspective, like usually governments who bet against technology, they tend to lose. I think that Bitcoin as a technology, what it’s producing, is this exquisite reserve asset. It’s a fantastic thing to hold and you get this access to this scarcity, this digital gold that has all kinds of features that traditional gold didn’t have, especially if you think about moving into potentially a period of higher inflation, right?

We haven’t had inflation since the late 70s. At the same time, we’ve had QE for nine years now. I think it’s conceivable that somewhere in the next 10 years, we’ll see another bout of inflation.

Then you get the problem from a government point of view is how do you raise taxes efficiently in an environment of high inflation?

One extreme example that I found, which was interesting was that Boris Yeltsin in Russia noticed that Moscow was losing big time on taxes, like projected revenues underperformed by 80%, something like that. And so, he organized a committee to investigate what was going wrong.

Obviously, at the time, the ruble was hyperinflated. The local governments then in order to get paid didn’t bother asking for rubles anymore. They accepted taxes to be paid in kind, which if you’re a chemical company, you would deliver chemicals to the government and so on.

Then part of that would be transported to Moscow. You can only imagine the kind of chaos.

In my mind, I plugged Bitcoin into that environment and Bitcoin as being a reality. Why wouldn’t a government in a situation like that accept Bitcoin for taxes? Why wouldn’t they want to hold some reserves in Bitcoin? Why wouldn’t they even mandate their banks to hold some of their reserves in Bitcoin because it’s politically neutral? It’s scarce, it gives you… As a matter of fact, Russian government is holding gold.

As far as when you think about whether the government can really control Bitcoin, well, again, Bitcoin is kind of like gold. So I think it’s true governments have a track record of controlling to some extent the gold price, which this project of demonetizing gold, which really started pick up speed in the 60s.

Keep in mind, however, they had huge amounts of gold in their central bank. So yes, you can use that to control the gold price to some extent right now. No central banks have any Bitcoin.

To me this scenario of governments trying to really interfere and control Bitcoin, other than, of course coming up, and I’ll get into this with some specific risk factors, they first have to own some.

To me, it’s really too early to talk about governments controlling Bitcoin from an economic point of view. When I think about the risks that are involved with Bitcoin right now, I think we have probably too much mining centralization, although it’s already improving.

Part of the problem is that chip manufacturing has not been commoditized yet so the *inaudible* chips are still only a few manufacturers that have committed enough resources to come up with a cutting edge chip. That’s a risk because if they act through those chip manufacturing processes, governments could conceivably control what happens with mining. Again, commoditization is solving that.

Another risk is quantum computing. If they come up with a way to crack the main cryptographic protocols that are used to build Bitcoin, but then again, those are the ones that are using the financial system as well. This would be a huge issue for everyone.

I think, even through a soft core, a user activated soft core it should be possible to change the mining algorithm. Bitcoin has different levels of quantum resistance already built into it. If you move to a different type of address, you will be safer, etc. There are things that you can do proactively as a saver.

I think one of the bigger concerns is privacy. It’s commonly known now that the Bitcoin blockchain is pretty transparent, even though it’s pseudo anonymous. There are several initiatives, mass *inaudible*, the lightning network. All those are going to improve privacy.

It’s also if you want to roll out Bitcoin as a currency that’s widely used by companies, you just need that privacy, like Apple or whatever company doesn’t want their internal bookkeeping to be transparent. There are a lot of economic incentives to improve privacy.

I think, from a security point of view, to me, what would be the logical next step for a government is to say we are concerned about these hacks that are happening. This reminds us of Wildcat Banking. There are conflicts of interest with these exchanges, where they are front running, kind of like the bucket shops of the early 20th century, Wildcat banking late 19th century.

They would say we want you to pool your assets into these government approved repositories and we’re going to have a system of Bitcoin reserves. Then of course, you could have a Bitcoin central bank.

I would be worried because that central bank one day could be hacked and that would be very disruptive. However, I don’t think it would dislodge the core protocol of Bitcoin. There are more peripheral concerns that I have.

Preston Pysh 12:44
Let’s talk about the future here, guys.

Erik, we heard some of your ideas as well. I’d like to hear if there’s anything else that you have, as far as your opinion on the future of crypto or Bitcoin specifically?

Erik Townsend 12:56
Well, first of all, I want to clarify, I don’t predict that governments will ever try to take over Bitcoin. I don’t think they have any reason to want to do that. I think that governments will build their own digital payment system that will compete with Bitcoin initially.

The way that they’ll compete is simply by outline, first generation cryptos, such as Bitcoin. That’s the way I see that going.

As far as the future, I think that eventually governments will recognize a new space race, if you will. If you think about the 1960s space race, the Soviets and the Americans both figured out that whoever controls space has a profound military advantage.

Governments are going to figure out that the US dollar’s days are numbered as the world’s reserve currency. Whoever figures out the digital payment system, the digital currency, that can replace the US dollar as the world’s both initially and probably the first round of this will be trade settlement. All international trade is settled in a digital currency, which somebody needs to invent.

Then eventually, we get to the point where the true meaning of a reserve currency, which is central bank reserve assets, are denominated not in US dollars in US Treasury bills. However, in this new digital currency, whoever controls that is like controlling space. Governments are going to figure that out.

I think there’s going to be a modern day Space Race to say who owns and controls the digital payment system. It’s very likely that it’s not a single winner. I think that there could be a Western Hemisphere digital payment system and a separate one with Russians and Chinese working together to come up with the Eastern answer. The US works together with the UK and other governments to come up with a Western answer. The two systems coexist.

However, I think we eventually get to government backed payment systems, which are designed to have all the opposite features of Bitcoin. They’re designed so the government can control everything. They’re designed to enable negative interest rates as a monetary policy tool. They’re designed to enable the outline of cash so that it becomes possible for the government to know where every penny of wealth and existence on the planet is, who owns it, when they got it, and who they got it from.

I think that we first go toward a global digital currency system, which is government backed, has all the opposite features of Bitcoin. Eventually, what distributed ledger technology will eventually get us to is a global sovereign bond market, where all sovereign debt is denominated in this new digital reserve currency.

There are some really cool things that you could do to design a digital sovereign bond market, using the Ethereum concept of smart contracts and so forth. You can start to do things where governments cannot weasel out of their own debt and restructure their own debt, because you actually have digital safeguards in place that hold them accountable to the original covenants that were behind the debt that they issued as sovereign debt.

I think there are fascinating things that could happen in terms of eventually replacing the US dollar centric global economy with a digital currency centric global economy.

What history teaches us about this is who controls the global currency is usually who has the strongest Navy. It’s about military force. I think that this will become, as I said, the new Space Race between China and Russia on one side of it and the United States and other Western governments on the other side of it. I think there will be a race for who controls it.

I think right now, the People’s Bank of China is already ahead of the game. They’re hiring blockchain engineers to try to figure out the digital RMB. I don’t think the digital RMB is going to be the answer to anything, but I think it is going to give China a leg up on being one of the key players in this space eventually.

I think that the future is very large in terms of digital currency. Unfortunately, I think it’s very scary.

Preston Pysh 16:57
Tuur?

Tuur Demeester 16:58
Yes, so I want to take a step back for a moment. It’s just kind of amazing to me to think that a few years ago most people, when we talked about Bitcoin, the question was like, “Is it a Ponzi scheme?”

And so, here we are talking about whether Bitcoin could compete with world currencies? It’s like what world are we living in? So to me, it’s just even just noting that Bitcoin right now is worth about 2% of the value of all the physical gold that has ever been mined, that is just mind blowing to me.

Technology is here to stay. The pace of innovation within Bitcoin is tremendous. Next year, I expect, obviously, regulatory pressure on exchanges. There could be an ICO crackdown. At the same time, the lightning network is going to keep growing. That is going to really empower lots of people who, of course…

I mean, in December, we were briefly talking about plus $10 transaction fees that was just another one of those bottleneck moments for Bitcoin. However, once we have 1000s of transactions per second, I think that the unbanked are going to be tremendously empowered, like people who basically want some cash on their phone. They don’t have a bank account. Very, very exciting things to come.

I think institutional interest is just ramping up. I think we’ll eventually see that Bitcoin ETF happen and more institutional products built upon Bitcoin. It’s going to just strengthen its use case as a reserve asset.

It may be true that governments try to come up with an answer, but really, just the fact that we’re talking about a marketplace of currencies all of a sudden, and it’s no longer just the government game is tremendously exciting to me.

Preston Pysh 18:42
Talk to us about the lightning network. I was tracking this pretty closely, probably six months ago. I haven’t really looked at too much of it.

I’m kind of curious to hear your thoughts on where the status of that is because I know that that was pretty big news here this past summer. It seems like it’s actually starting to materialize. I just don’t know enough about it to speak intelligently. I’m curious if you could tell our audience a little bit more about it.

Tuur Demeester 19:06
Basically, the technology, the way it works is kind of like you keep a tab at a bar, and you only pay at the end. That’s the settlement on the main chain. Opening up a lightning channel, you fund it with some Bitcoin.

Then there’s lots of nodes in the network so if you want to reach someone on the other side, you have up to 20 hops to reach that other person. All the nodes in the middle, what they can see is only where the money came from the previous node. They can only see where they’re supposed to send it to the next node.

That’s very similar to Tor. It’s *inaudible* routing. It’s similar to how the Tor Browser works. There is no permanent ledger of the transactions. And so, that really improves privacy a lot. It also improves scalability.

It’s kind of interesting how scalability and privacy are kind of two sides of the same coin often as the more you compress information, the more scalable it gets. At the same time, the more it enhances privacy.

There are six implementations of the lightning network. It’s kind of like six different browsers to browse the network. All of them are open source. There are three of those that are the most known and prominent ones. They have the same interoperable standard called bolt.

Before they went live, the developers all came together and tried to make sure that each implementation passed every of 75 tests of compatibility. It’s kind of like the same with the browsers, right? If you browse the network, you kind of want to see the same transactions as you would with another browser that there’s no one of them kind of limping behind.

I think that’s just a fantastic start for this new era in Bitcoin. I think it’s massive. I mean, we’re getting companies like Square involved in Bitcoin payments. These large companies that are really looking again, rather than kind of playing around with it and accepting it for a few payments. Now, with lightning, and true scalability becoming available, retail companies are going to get interested again in accepting Bitcoin for payments.

Stig Brodersen 21:08
Yeah, and you’re even seeing Robin Hood do encrypted transactions on the network too. It’s very interesting what’s happening in the space right now.

Erik, I’m curious to hear your thoughts on the lightning network.

Erik Townsend 21:20
Well, I think Tuur’s description was very accurate. I agree with the things that he said, but I want to put it in a different context or a different perspective. We’re starting with Bitcoin, a system because of its limitation of being based on proof of work, which is simply not suitable to scale to be a meaningful global payment system for anything. It’s only a few transactions per second. It is inherently broken.

What lightning is is a fantastic way to provide an off chain settlement system that operates in parallel to the Bitcoin network that creates some scalability. It is in other words, a fantastic workaround to solve a really big limitation of Bitcoin.

My question is, okay, what happens when somebody comes up with a replacement for blockchain, a DLP, which doesn’t require mining, doesn’t require proof of work, and does 10s or hundreds of 1000s of transactions per second, without any blockchain, and it’s completely secure and decentralized and achieves all the same things?

All of a sudden, the cryptocurrency that’s based on that standard, as opposed to blockchain, has such a profound advantage that everybody will forget that Bitcoin ever existed, just like the Wright flyer.

Now, I know Tuur is dying to say it’s been 10 years. Nobody’s come up with that yet and that’s right. Nobody’s come up with it yet. I think it’s coming. I think it’s coming soon.

The question is going to be, will it take longer to do the truly, fully decentralized version of that, versus a mostly decentralized version, which doesn’t fully achieve all of the government impenetrability objectives of Bitcoin.

But it might be satisfactory, if you’re part of the crowd that says, “Hey, I don’t mind paying my taxes. I don’t mind that the government can see it, but I’m going to get a much faster, more scalable, secure system that’s going to be okay, maybe that’s a competitor that I’m interested in?”

Tuur Demeester 23:14
Well, yeah, like, first of all, if there is ever a better Bitcoin, I’ll be first in line to buy it. I love innovation. If there’s something better out there, I want to see it.

Just to your point about Bitcoin having all these limitations, I would say keep in mind, gold was the backbone of the world’s financial system, all the way until 100 years ago.

For thousands of years, you could say goal is enormously limiting. It’s heavy. It’s cumbersome. It’s a pain to store it. Yet layers were built on top of it. You could say it’s a hack or it’s a workaround.

I would argue that complex systems always are built out of simple systems that interact with each other. And so, to eventually develop gold based IOUs to have the London bullion market in London, where large scale transactions were settled…

By the way, the LBMA still exists today. It only does a few transactions per day. The average value of a transaction in the LBMA is $7 million. It’s a settlement system. It does what it needs to do.

Most people trade gold, based on ETFs and all kinds of paper.

I don’t think that it’s wrong or hacky for Bitcoin to scale in the way that it’s scaling. I think it’s just in line with what you would expect from a digital gold.

Stig Brodersen 24:32
Tuur, I have a question. Did the fees drop in the lightning network, something that was under heavy critique, because it was escalating onto the Bitcoin protocol?

Tuur Demeester 24:41
I think the fee discussion is a little bit complex, because you had all this speculation all this frenzy late last year. People eventually didn’t care anymore what they paid and you had payment processors like Coinbase and other ones who didn’t optimize the fees that they charge. Then if a lot of people overpay, then in order to jump above that, you will overpay even more. It was kind of a cascade that way.

There was also some suspicions of spam attacks, where miners would actually include transactions of their own with high fees just to kind of boycott the network and maybe promote Bitcoin cash or some other altcoin.

Now with the frenzy subsiding, lots of pressure is gone, I think that’s the main reason, because there’s not a lot of bitcoins circulating on the lightning network, even though it’s live. It’s still a beta and being tested for robustness to withstand attacks and improve it.

I don’t think it’s the direct reason, but in the long run, it’s going to alleviate a lot of pressure from the main chain, because the only transaction you’re going to need is to open the channel. Leave it open as long as you want.

Then finally, now and then you want to settle on the main chain. That’s going to push a lot of… and also will likely if you look at what block stream came up with the Federated sidechain sothey can move bitcoins in the side chain, have a lot of transactions there to settle with other exchanges, then move it back to the main chain.

All these technologies are relieving pressure, but I do think in the long run, if we’re thinking about $100,000 Bitcoin, a million dollar Bitcoin. Sure, we can have maintained transactions that are $100 or even $1,000 per transaction, but that doesn’t mean that for the average user, that’s going to be the price.

Preston Pysh 26:22
Guys, I want to talk to you guys both about the technicals on it, just strictly talking price, because everything we’ve been talking about really is kind of a fundamental analysis. Is Bitcoin going to be around 5 to 10 years from now, and the reasons why or why not?

For a lot of people listening to this, they might own Bitcoin, or they might have taken a position in Bitcoin in the last couple of months. They’ve had a very terrible experience since December. I mean, this thing has been punished by the price.

I’m kind of curious, because I know, Erik, you obviously understand technical analysis, you understand how to buy and sell commodities. Tuur, I know you’re an active investor in all these cryptos.

I’m kind of curious how you guys see the next couple months playing out, maybe through the coming year? Do you think that this bear market in Bitcoin is going to continue to persist?

Let’s just take our whole, especially Erik, because I know you’re a bear on it long term, but let’s just imagine that Bitcoin is going to be successful in the long run. How do you look at it from a price standpoint and the technicals that you’re seeing in the price action? We’ll throw it over to you first, Erik.

Erik Townsend 27:29
I have to be honest. I don’t look at technicals on Bitcoin. I do understand technical analysis. That’s what I do for a living.

I look at Bitcoin and the way that I see it is a lottery ticket speculative investment. The way that I think about it is the argument that holds water in my book is hey, if you bought a bunch of Bitcoin back, when they were a fraction of a penny, and sat on them, you’d be feeling pretty good right now.

I don’t think it makes any sense for anybody anywhere to put a substantial part of their net worth into Bitcoin or any other first generation cryptocurrency. The reason is you just don’t know it could be that these things take over the world and are going to be worth 10 times, 100 times or 1000 times more than they are today. It could be that they get outlawed next week and go to zero.

Tuur Demeester 28:20
To me Bitcoin technical Analysis works really well actually. I think that the cryptocurrency market is just like any other market, it just has people involved in it. Psychology is at play. Mass psychology also is at play.

If anything, I would say, technical analysis works better than traditional markets, just because the players are a little less sophisticated and you get more raw emotion.

You do see the patterns a little better. I have an outlook that I put together in January when Bitcoin was about $10,000 so maybe I’ll just go over the main point of what I’m expecting for the coming year.

To me 2017 was, I call it the year of the *inaudible* wars were because of the Bitcoin transaction fees kicking in, a lot of people thought that something was wrong with Bitcoin and that it was supposed to be free. And so, you got all these alternatives that were proposed.

Nonetheless, Bitcoin went through the wall of worry and rallied all the way up to $20,000.

I’m expecting for the coming year that these reactionary narratives of we have something better than Bitcoin, I think they’re likely to continue and to probably increase in size. It’ll be larger companies. Maybe even like Venezuela, some more governments are coming up with their own proposals.

I think that this year, and I wrote this when Bitcoin was like $10,000. So I think that it could really be a shakeout year. I thinkin the terms of the ICOs, we’re in a lemon market, lots of questionable assets information as symmetry, inexperienced participants at the same time regulators are catching up. I think they’re going to start looking at exchanges more closely at the existing hedge funds at the ICSOs. There might be some forced this hoarding of assets and that could put downward pressure on the price.

The security of the custodians is something that I worry about, because a lot of these were founded when Bitcoin was maybe $5 billion or less. Now we’re talking about a lot more. That means a bigger target on their back.

It’s not certain that their security procedures have improved accordingly. Tether is an asset that I think people should look at, because it’s basically a $1 substitute that people use to move funds between exchanges. It is quite effective and is pegged to the dollar.

The company who runs it argues that it’s backed by dollars, one to one, but I think that the legality of it could be disputed in the year to come and so that could really hurt liquidity in the markets.

At the same time, we’re going to keep seeing technical advancements in Bitcoin. Like I said, the lightning network, smart contracts coming to Bitcoin, decentralized apps coming to Bitcoin enhance privacy, improved custody solutions, like smart custody, I think is going to become a world with multi SIG solutions and atomic swaps.

In the mining space, I see *inaudible* commoditization. So like I said cheaper production of chips by more manufacturers, giving more access to the mining space. Then in terms of ICOs, I really think valuations are going to suffer more, even though we’ve already seen such a downturn. I think there’ll be more hurt.

I think if the theorem’s value was in part based on this ICO boom, it’s kind of like Yahoo. Yahoo was the recipient of a lot of advertising dollars, from dot-com companies in the late 90s.

In the same sense, a lot of ICOS, they raise money in ether, thereby constraining supply. I then think that having the unwind of the Ico market, is also going to hurt ether, especially because there’s so many legal issues there.

At the same time, at some point, Yahoo had a market cap that was over three times that of Amazon. And so, I think that it’s possible if the ICO crackdown doesn’t happen, that ether source a little more and could even become bigger than Bitcoin, even though right now it’s 20%. Those are my thoughts about the coming year. I think more bitcoin price weakness is definitely possible.

Preston Pysh 32:19
Alright, so guys, I’ve really enjoyed this conversation. You guys are both so intelligent. It’s fun to kind of beat this issue up on both sides of the aisle.

What I want to do here at the very end is I want to throw it over to each of you to kind of make your case or your narrative to the audience on why you think whatever is going to happen in the crypto or Bitcoin specific. You guys can kind of tailor it however you want.

Let’s throw it over to Erik first and give us your narrative.

Erik Townsend 32:44
I think that Bitcoin was a fabulous invention that’s going to inspire a lot of innovation and cool things. Preston, you and I could create the Preston Coin this afternoon. We know all of the big podcast producers on the internet, we could conspire to go and pimp our new thing and say we’re going to compete with Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is entirely an open source project, which means we can easily… We don’t have to steal anything, we can copy all the source code and we can do the exact same thing over.

There is no intrinsic value in Bitcoin other than its popularity. Bitcoin has a name brand associated with it. If we come up with the Preston cCin and try to sell them, nobody’s going to buy them because they haven’t heard about Preston Coins being worthwhile or valuable.

However, we can create something that’s technologically equivalent to Bitcoin. The only difference is Bitcoin has a very well established community of miners. We would be starting from scratch having to recruit new miners in order to compete with it.

Meanwhile, the entire military industrial complex is going to look at this whole thing and say, “Hey, there’s an opportunity for somebody more in the government contractor space. Let me hire up all the smartest guys doing this and let’s go invent not the next Bitcoin but the Orwellian version of this, which has all the opposite goals of Bitcoin, which is designed to eliminate the freedom that Bitcoin is intending to protect, and basically gives government’s control over everything.”

They then sell that to governments and say, “Look, you can outlaw these first generation cryptos by the new digital currency technology from us, your trusted defense contractor, and the hell with privacy and the rights of individuals.”

I am not hoping that that’s the answer. Government can outlaw Bitcoin and the view that you’ll hear people say, which is, “Oh, they can’t be outlawed because there’s no way to stop it.”

It’s true that it would be very hard to outlaw the existence of the Bitcoin network, but it’s very easy for them to outlaw the exchange of bitcoins for fiat currency. That’s the way that they would do it.

I predict that they will eventually. Why haven’t they yet? Because they’re not ready to introduce the government backed alternative which I think is going to be what eventually wins in the end. I hope to be proven wrong so, Tuur, please tell me why I’m wrong and why the good side of the forest because I’m definitely talking about the dark side of the forest here. Tell me why the light side of the forest is going to win out.

Tuur Demeester 35:15
Yeah, so with Bitcoin after a period of 20 years of trying to come up with a private digital currency, finally, digital gold was invented. It’s because of this genius combination of approaches, an important part of which is proof of work.

So the creation of digital gold to me is an event that is similar to the discovery of petroleum, which petroleum was around for ages. People would use it for different things. But it wasn’t until in 1850 when people started refining the petroleum that it became useful and such a huge boom erupted.

To me, that proof of work component and then also the whole idea of modular scaling, I think, is going to just unleash so many new types of products that we don’t even realize are there yet.

Bitcoin is a way to convert energy directly into financial security. You don’t need all the bureaucracy. You can directly have financial reliability peer to peer, and that is very much in line with the current generation of millennials, which is going to be the dominant generation.

A few years from now, economically speaking, they grew up with peer to peer. They were torrenting movies. They understand how this is a robust type of technology. They like choices. And so, to them, it’s natural that they have choices and things including money. They understand open source and the power of it. They also grew up around this financial crisis in 2008. They know that it’s good to have a little bit of insurance against sudden events that might happen.

In terms of is Bitcoin going to stay the dominant currency? I do believe so. I think Bitcoin is the dot-com of this space, all the other ones are a lot smaller like dor-ru or dot-ie, like they might be around, but the long tail, I think it’s going to be very slim.

Bitcoin is a shelling point, which is basically something that you refer to when you don’t have anything else to relate to the other person is just something that is universally known as a brand. That’s trustworthy just like Coca Cola.

There are lots of Coca Cola knockoffs but people trust the reliability that the Coca Cola brand stands for. That is real, because the best developers are working on Bitcoin.

Code is something that is live. It’s not something that you can just rob, so you have to keep maintaining it in order to prevent software rot. We have the most brilliant and the most accomplished developers working on the Bitcoin protocol. So yes, I think it’s going to continue to shine as the digital gold of this world.

Preston Pysh 37:50
Erik and Tuur, seriously, guys, thank you so much for having this discussion. What I really liked about this discussion is you guys were so respectful of each other. I think that that is just so important when you’re trying to have a thoughtful discussion, a calm discussion, so that when the person who’s listening to this can hear both sides. It’s not an emotion field. They can make their own opinion as to where they lie in this and what kind of decisions they want to make in the future.

Thank you both for such an informed discussion, a thoughtful discussion, and most importantly, a calm discussion. Thank you for that.

Erik, you run Macro Voices. We’re going to have a link in our show notes to Macro Voices. You guys have some superb content, especially if you’re interested in any type of macro investing. This show is just phenomenal. Erik, we’re gonna have a link in your show notes. Is there anything else that you wanted to give people a hand off? A Twitter feed or something like that?

Erik Townsend 38:46
Oh, you can follow me on twitter @ErikSTownsend and macrovoices.com. It is really the place to follow me. We do a podcast every Thursday night. It’s a real pleasure for me to be on your show. Thank you so much for the invitation.

It’s also a real pleasure to be in a conversation with a guy like Tuur because as you said, there’s a super smart guy. I think we both see both sides of this argument. By the way, I really hope that Tuur is right about all this. It’s a great opportunity to be on a show with a super smart couple of guys so I really enjoyed it.

Preston Pysh 39:20
Thanks, sir. Tuur, hand off to your location as well.

Tuur Demeester 39:24
Yeah, I share the sentiment. It was a really stimulating discussion. People can find me and just Google my name. The first link is my Twitter account, which I’m on every day.And then I also published some articles on medium.com. so you can find me there as well.

Preston Pysh 39:44
We’ll have links in the show notes to Tuur’s Twitter feed and also his Medium account.

Stig Brodersen 39:49
Thank you so much for joining us here on the show. That was what we had for this episode of The Investor’s Podcast. We will see each other again next week.

Outro 40:00
Thanks for listening to TIP. To access the show notes, courses or forums, go to theinvestorspodcast.com. To get your questions played on the show, go to asktheinvestors.com and win a free subscription to any of our courses on TIP Academy. This show is for entertainment purposes only. Before making investment decisions, consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by the TIP Network. Written permission must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.

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