BTC076: FINDING ASYMMETRIC INVESTMENTS

W / BILL MILLER IV

3 May 2022

This week, Preston Pysh talks with Bill Miller IV about finding asymmetric investments like Bitcoin, and much, much more!

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IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

  • Bill’s overall thoughts on the current market conditions.
  • How Bill and his father first found Bitcoin.
  • Why Bill found Bitcoin to be an asymmetric investment.
  • Thoughts on Musk buying Twitter.
  • Bitcoin vs Crypto.
  • Concentrated investing and why it’s important.
  • Mean / Variance Portfolio Theorem.
  • Margin and investing.
  • Finding big trends in markets.

TRANSCRIPT

Disclaimer: The transcript that follows has been generated using artificial intelligence. We strive to be as accurate as possible, but minor errors and slightly off timestamps may be present due to platform differences.

Preston Pysh (00:03):

Hey, everyone. Welcome to this Wednesday’s release of the podcast where we’re talking about Bitcoin. Today’s guest is a longtime friend and fellow Bitcoiner, Bill Miller IV. We’ve had Bill Miller Sr. on the show numerous times in the past, but never his fellow portfolio manager and son. During our conversation, Bill explains how him and his father first got into Bitcoin in 2013, haven’t sold a single coin since, some of his thoughts on the broader markets handling inflation, Bitcoin versus crypto, sage advice that he’s learned through the years, and much, much more. So without further delay, here’s my chat with Bill Miller.

Intro (00:41):

You are listening to Bitcoin Fundamentals by The Investor’s Podcast Network. Now, for your host, Preston Pysh.

Preston Pysh (00:59):

Hey, everyone. Welcome to the show. Like I said in the introduction, I’m here with Bill Miller. Bill, we’ve been talking for years now and it is about time we actually had a recorded conversation. So I’m excited to be doing this finally.

Bill Miller IV (01:13):

Me too, man. That makes two of us. Thanks for having me on.

Preston Pysh (01:16):

Yeah. Man, it’s about time. So let’s just start with the overall markets, because there’s so much happening right now that, holy moly, I mean, the currencies. Let’s just start there. So when I’m looking at various currency charts, the DXY, the dollar is just ripping, absolutely ripping. And it’s not like the dollar is ripping and you got all these other currencies that are about halfway through their move.

Preston Pysh (01:43):

It appears like a lot of these other currencies, the Japanese yen, the yuan, the euro, any major currency appears to be stopping out at whatever previous limitation that we saw against the dollar in previous currency cycles. And I guess for me, when I’m looking at this and I’m looking at the Fed getting ready to go into a 50 basis point hike, I’m thinking to myself, how in the world can in the backdrop of that, like over in Japan, you got them still doing yield curve control, how in the world is the market going to be able to handle this moving forward?

Bill Miller IV (02:25):

So, first of all, I’m not a currency expert. Let’s start with that. But with the Fed starting to raise rates and you’d expect, I guess, the dollar to be getting stronger there with everyone else dumping currencies or dumping fuel on the fires in their neighborhoods as well.

Preston Pysh (02:40):

Yeah.

Bill Miller IV (02:41):

But it’s a really interesting setup, I’d say, macroeconomically here. I mean, if you think about what’s going on with rates, what’s going on with the housing market, what’s going on with inflation and prices. I mean, seeing a 40 year high in inflation, job markets on fire, people can’t get enough housing. Now, the Fed’s starting to raise rates. I mean, you wonder how it’s going to resolve, the situation’s going to resolve itself when you’re looking at… Mortgage rates have made a dramatic move here over the past just couple months.

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Bill Miller IV (03:12):

I mean, going from all time lows at two and change now to five, that’s a big change. I mean, that’s a unique interest rate, mortgage rate volatility that people hadn’t seen before. But at the same time, housing prices are going up at 19% a year and you’re financing that asset at 5%. So, interestingly not the home builders ETF is off year to date a good amount, but demand for housing is going to continue. It’s just part of the problem is people can’t get the supplies to build stuff because of often talked about supply chain constraints, you can’t get stuff. And so that’s slowing stuff down because inflation’s been… And the Fed is so far behind the curve right now. It’s interesting because the Fed was behind the curve, I think, the entire past decade. And they came to a mea culpa actually a couple years ago when the San Francisco Fed came out and said, “Look, we told you 2% was a symmetrical target.”

Bill Miller IV (04:08):

Well, we actually went back and looked at our own meetings with a computer and analyzed the verbiage used and it turns out that we were actually thinking about 2% as the ceiling. Right? And so, which was interesting because then you have all these capital allocators, CFOs and stuff going, putting funds into the market going, “Okay, here 2% should be a symmetrical target.” And the reality it was a ceiling. So they were too tight on the other end, which never allowed us to get to escape velocity. Right?

Bill Miller IV (04:34):

And now we’re well beyond escape, velocity and interest rates are still pretty much at zero and inflation’s at eight. So, the Fed has a very hard job. It’s super hard, but if I’m in the Fed seat right now, I’m going to come out of the next meeting and hike more than two hikes here. Right? Because the market’s expecting two hikes and acceleration and inflation expectations are accelerated. So they got to get ahead of that and come out and do something like maybe you come out and do 62 and a half basis points hike instead of 50, just let the market know you know you’re ahead of things. So if you’re actually afraid of being too fast, I think that you can’t rock the boat too much, but you got to get ahead of stuff at this point.

Preston Pysh (05:16):

That’s funny you say that because Greg Foss said something to me probably two days ago, he was like, “I think it’s going to be 75.” And nobody in the market is saying that, most people right now that consensus is it’s 50 basis points.

Bill Miller IV (05:30):

I think Bullard came out maybe one day in last week and said, “It’s not my base case, but 75 is a possibility.” They were testing waters with that one, but who knows?

Preston Pysh (05:39):

I guess the thing that I’m really struggling with is I agree with that when you’re looking at it just from the US lens and how much inflation we have here, how far from the rest of the curve they are with the federal funds rate. But at the same time, I’m looking internationally and I’m looking at how all these other currencies are. They look like they’re at a point that historically that trend line is suggesting that something breaks at this point and they’re still at 25 basis points. Like you just said, they basically haven’t moved at all, right? They haven’t moved at all and the rest of the world is getting ready to break. I think China alone, I mean, look at China, the videos and stuff I’m seeing coming out of there. It’s asinine.

Bill Miller IV (06:25):

I don’t know what’s going on over there. It’s pretty scary actually.

Preston Pysh (06:31):

I was trying to figure it out on Twitter over the weekend and it was interesting. People really sent me a wide array of different thoughts on it. And it was a mix from people saying, “Oh, it’s a strategic play,” to people saying, “No, there’s internal fighting within the CCP.” And some of this has to do with just the resourcing that they have for food and water and whatnot, and you’re seeing an infighting between Shanghai and Beijing.

Preston Pysh (07:02):

One thing’s for sure the videos are strange, very strange coming out of there. And I wonder how much of it’s just stuff we just really can’t even understand from a resourcing standpoint. But yeah, I don’t know. It’s going to be interesting to see what happens with this next hike and then how the fixed income market behaves from there. I’m seeing a growing course of people suggesting that we’re seeing the long end of the curve peak out right now and we actually might start to see it get bid because they’re trying to front run the big deflationary fit that’s on the horizon. Do you buy that or do you think there’s still more to sell off here based on the negative spread to the inflation numbers that we’ve seen printed?

Bill Miller IV (07:46):

I mean, I think if you just look historically when you’re at this level of negative real rates, but just the reflexivity of demand is going to be interesting. I think it’s going to be continue to be robust. With that said, if you get too much whipsawing volatility, it can throw off people’s planning. And I think the Fed knows that and I think they’re ahead of that. I mean, the Fed knows that when the curve inverts, the bond market’s predicting a recession. They know that now.

Preston Pysh (08:12):

Yeah. Yeah.

Bill Miller IV (08:13):

And they’re watching that. They’re watching their five year forward indicator as well. It’s the five year, five year forward rate. They keep a good look at that. That’s now accelerated out to, I think it’s like 260-ish now. Just tells you they’re, I think, behind the curve again. So there’s all kinds of things that are accelerating and changing that are saying, okay, time to get ahead of this and shut it down. So there are things that are breaking and I think that’s why you continue to see this crazy volatility in all kinds of markets that are out there. But when I say breaking, I don’t mean in a systemic sense necessarily and everyone’s incentive to keep the thing together and to keep everything moving along. And so the history has shown that’s generally what happens.

Bill Miller IV (08:54):

And so, from an investment perspective at least, it’s hard to sit here and say, “I got to go to cash or I got to go to all bonds or whatever,” because I think a recession is on the horizon. It’s a very low probability event. And the great quote on that one is more money is lost. Preparing for recessions in the market than ever is actually lost in the recession itself or the bear market draw down or whatever. And I wouldn’t say it’s impacting our positioning or the way we think about the world broadly because we tend to bet broadly on growth and optimism and things working out.

Preston Pysh (09:31):

Well, yeah, no, and I like that take. Somewhere there’s a bull market. You got to just be able to look around and see where that might be. When I’m thinking of one of the boldest calls that you and your dad have made through the years, I think we all know what that is. I’m curious if you’re willing to maybe share some of the impetus and when you guys first went into this trade and I think it was back in 2015 was when you guys first-

Bill Miller IV (09:59):

  1. 2013.

Preston Pysh (10:00):

Wow. Okay. 2013.

Bill Miller IV (10:02):

Hey, Preston, let’s not call it a trade. Okay? It’s not a trade. We’ve been consistent buyers since 2013.

Preston Pysh (10:11):

Thank you for correcting that.

Bill Miller IV (10:12):

I have personally have never sold a Bitcoin.

Preston Pysh (10:17):

What am I doing calling it a trade? 2013. So everything that I’ve seen published is 2015. I did not realize you guys were in that early. Walk us through it. So I mean, you guys would’ve seen and you guys would’ve had this opinion that the 2008 crisis was not solved. I’m assuming that was some of the impetus for the position. Walk us through it. What were you guys thinking?

Bill Miller IV (10:44):

So it may be more simple now, but by the way, my dad’s probably not watching this show right now, but I’ll come out here and say this that I actually want to go on the record and compare. I don’t know if we could do this in the blockchain or via wherever we originally bought Bitcoin. I want to go back and see who bought Bitcoin earlier, me or him. He obviously has way more than I do and has done way better in it, but I just want to go back and I do want to go back and take a look at that. But the impetus for it was for me at least was just repeatedly seeing this thing pop up in the newspapers and this crazy interesting idea that it was just this wacky thing and it had gone up a gajillion percent was really volatile and blah, blah, blah, blah.

Bill Miller IV (11:24):

And so then they talk about the white paper and okay, I got to take a look at that. Go read that, you go, “Wow, this is pretty cool. This is really interesting.” This is actually a unique idea. It’s a new technology no one’s ever seen before and then it allows people to transact and exchange value with no central party or processor. It can’t be censored. Wow, the supply is known ahead of time. Everyone knows the rules. It’s got some really interesting potential and so we started buying it then and followed it ever since. And the way it’s scaled, the technology, is just so cool. And so we’ve been actively interested in it and trying to let people know as broadly as we can about it and it’s been a really cool asset for us.

Preston Pysh (12:16):

Whenever I first got into it, the big thing that was concerning, if you will, for its future was really the scaling. How are we ever going to get to a point where we can do immediate settlement and have the bandwidth to go beyond call it 400,000 transactions per block or per minute, I forget what the number was, but how do we get to something that was comparable to Visa or MasterCard to handle the throughput? And back then in 2015, there was ideas on what that might be, but there was no solution that seemed like that was coming around anytime soon. So how did you guys think through that risk and how to size the position back then?

Bill Miller IV (13:04):

How to think through the scalability risk? Well, so there’s actually different use cases for it, right? And that the transaction aspect of it doesn’t need to occur necessarily for the idea to have value, right? And that you can have this digital ledger where you can store your own means personally, you don’t need to necessarily be able to be using it every single day. As a matter of fact, why would you want to spend something that goes up at 200% a year, right? So I don’t know. And that’s part of the knock against it is that one of the many bear cases that have prevented people from making a lot of money so far over the past 12 years, people say, “It’s too volatile. You don’t know what it’s worth.”

Bill Miller IV (13:50):

Well, by the time it’s no longer volatile, it’ll be a million dollars plus a Bitcoin. And so if you just look at it on a Mean Variance Portfolio Theorem traditional risk return basis, if you add it to any portfolio, it would’ve made that portfolio much, much better on the traditional financial metrics that people have cared about over time.

Bill Miller IV (14:11):

But again, you don’t need the transaction aspect to it. And I don’t know if we necessarily saw that these additional layers would be built on top like Lightning Network, that sort of thing. But we saw that certainly the case for the value storage and the fact that the value couldn’t be inflated away. And that’s not a concern in the US, it’s a concern in countries or hasn’t been at least in the past. But now in other countries, that is a huge benefit to it is that you can do remittances and occurrence. It’s something that is appreciated over time, as opposed to loss purchasing power. And so there’s all kinds of unique aspects to it that are really cool and different.

Preston Pysh (14:54):

Talk to us about the idea of not selling your winners. I think this is something that you and your dad have just… When I think about what your dad especially is known for is really this idea of not selling your winners. I know he’s pretty famous for the whole Amazon just owning that and not taking it out of his portfolio or reducing his size. He just lets it ride. So talk to us about this idea and why this is so important for successful investing.

Bill Miller IV (15:24):

Yeah. Well, so there’s a couple things you want to do to be successful investing and one of is minimize your liabilities. And so anytime you sell a heavily appreciated asset really the only thing you know for sure when you sell that heavily appreciated asset is you just create a liability for yourself. And so even if you have a heavily appreciated asset with the total addressable market is still huge. So it could still grow, assuming its valuation isn’t crazy relative to its potential longer term.

Bill Miller IV (15:55):

Even if you’re going to compound at a below market rate, it may actually be rational to hold onto that just because if you look at the after tax return, it’s going to make sense. But if you can find something that has a massive addressable market with a phenomenal management team that can keep attacking it and just growing and building upon their scale and their moats, then you never want to sell that.

Bill Miller IV (16:18):

And so, watching him and his personal accounts been pretty cool too. I mean, I’ve learned a lot from working with him, but one of the things I’ve learned is watching him manage his own money and he’ll finance stuff with margin debt regularly. So, just because you don’t have to create the liability, the margin debt costs a couple percent a year and used confidence going to grow faster than that.

Bill Miller IV (16:39):

Not that I’m sitting here recommending people use margin debt because I think it requires a very thoughtful framework and approach to managing it and knowing the rules to it, which he obviously does and has done very well. But yeah, and minimizing that tax liability is actually a very important thing that not enough people do. And one of the great books on investing is I have it somewhere around here is just the old Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. One of the points he makes in it is all the money he made was in sitting, not in trading, right? The big money he has made in the big moves and I know that was one of my dad’s inspirations for that approach.

Preston Pysh (17:18):

It’s funny. I read that book after talking to your dad and him saying something very similar to me years ago about figure out what the big move is. And then once you get there, stay as long as you can and stay as long as you think that there’s, like you’re saying, an addressable market that can keep letting it run. And that’s how you really make a lot of money in some of these positions. Awesome. Awesome feedback there. So Bill, let’s change gears. Let’s talk about the recent news here with Twitter and Elon Musk. What are some of your thoughts on this? So we just found out today that the buy’s going to go through, what are some of your thoughts around this one?

Bill Miller IV (17:59):

Man, I could not be happier. I think this is such a win for humanity. I saw Senator Warren tweeted or said or something, “This is dangerous.” I thought, dangerous? It’s dangerous that the most successful entrepreneur in the history of the world is going to allow free speech on the town square for the world, what is the problem? I mean, this is fantastic. This is so good. It’s going to be cool. So we’ll see what happens, but I’m very excited about it.

Preston Pysh (18:32):

I’m excited about the news and I’m remaining skeptical on the application of everything that he says he’s going to do. I suspect that he’s going to open things up and we are not going to have this crazy censorship that is so obvious, so insanely obvious on just so many different fronts. And man, I’m here for that if that’s what is put in place and I’m definitely here for the bots, these reply bots, oh my God. Have you seen some of Michael Saylor’s thoughts on implementing basically an orange verification badge for people that load Bitcoin into some type of escrow. And then I think this is such a brilliant idea and something that is so needed, you have to have some type of feedback mechanism that just prevents the spamming. I mean, my Lord. Any other comments or things on that?

Bill Miller IV (19:26):

I’m excited. Yeah, anything Michael Saylor says I am a big fan of.

Preston Pysh (19:32):

Brilliant.

Bill Miller IV (19:32):

Brilliant.

Preston Pysh (19:33):

Brilliant.

Bill Miller IV (19:34):

Brilliant.

Preston Pysh (19:35):

Bitcoin versus crypto. What are your thoughts?

Bill Miller IV (19:38):

Yeah, I do have some thoughts on this, actually. I don’t own any “crypto.” I think B3 owns some Ethereum, I think maybe through liquid traded vehicles, less so than owning it direct. But yeah, I don’t want to say I think there’s one, I think there’s one that stands above the rest. It’s Bitcoin. I think when you look at just the theoretical underpinnings of it, the way it was constructed, the fact that there is no central person or set of people tied to it. I think that is just a massive, unique, underlying attribute that’s important to think about. And when you look at the verification or let’s call it consensus mechanism here for processing new blocks, proof of work is important, I think, in that the base layer should be hard to create. It should take time.

Bill Miller IV (20:31):

It should take energy and the process has been set underway and it just seems unstoppable at this point when you think about just the overall security around it and the feedback loops and all kinds of other stuff. It was really, I’d say, a stroke of genius for satoshis. It’s pretty cool. But when you think about crypto and DeFi and the other stuff going on there, that obviously has a lot of potential in some ways. I’m not sure that… We’re probably beyond the point of them being ruled illegal securities offering some of these other things, but you never know. Right? That’s already been ruled out, I think, for Bitcoin, which is one of the reasons I think why institutions are increasingly buying it, putting out their balance sheet. I mean, a lot of it’s been de-risk from that perspective, from the scaling perspective, from the technology proving the concept, but a lot of people say, “Hey, invest in my crypto thing.”

Bill Miller IV (21:27):

And my take is why wouldn’t I just buy Coinbase stock, right? Or that should be their benchmark quite candidly, if you want to talk about establishing a benchmark for a crypto thing. It should be Coinbase stock. Coinbase stock, they are the 800 pound gorilla. They sit in the middle of it all. They have a ventures arm where you get access to all of these other currencies, right? You don’t have to deal with some new setup. Most people probably have a stock account. Could it fail? Sure. I think it’s increasing unlikely at this point when you look at the evolution of the ecosystem, but Coinbase is probably the place you want to be if you want to be in “crypto” and have exposure to the entire ecosphere. And so it’s not an expensive stock I don’t think at this point when we think about the long term prospects of what’s going on there. And that’s probably the way to get exposure to it really easy way for people to get exposure to it I’d say long term.

Preston Pysh (22:21):

I liked your point about there needs to be some type of work or some type of energy commit to a base layer of this entire ecosystem. Because without that, I don’t know how we’re really saying we’re solving anything compared to the existing system and quandary that we’re in. And I think it’s important that at the end of the day, opinions are opinions, but there needs to be some type of incentive that actually drives that to be the outcome.

Preston Pysh (22:50):

And when I look at the whole mining process and I look at a lot of Michael Saylor’s points about these reinforcing network effects that just naturally occur around proof of work, I suspect, and I think I’m very biased in this but I’m curious to hear your thoughts, I suspect that is one of the reasons why Bitcoin is going to be paramount over all these other competing protocols is because those reinforcing network effects around energy.

Preston Pysh (23:19):

And we’re seeing this with the energy companies starting to really… I think their eyes are really starting to be opened up as to how this is going to assist them into handling additional energy production. And they got these requirements for peak energy versus their standard steady state energy demand that so much of this is going to be reinforcing to Bitcoin. Is that what you’re seeing as well? Or is there something else that maybe you’re looking at?

Bill Miller IV (23:49):

No, I think that’s exactly right. I think Bitcoin solves a lot of problems and one of them is it helps eliminate waste in that current system. And so it’s really interesting to see some of the innovations that are occurring in the mining space. People using all kinds of unique energy sources that had either gone a waste before or had just not been properly utilized, Exxon’s flaring gas to mine Bitcoin now. It’s just crazy to see the extent of innovation going on around it. And so that’s super exciting.

Bill Miller IV (24:22):

There’s less obviously attention and innovation, I’d say, around the overall process to this other stuff, to a lot of these other coins for obvious reasons because they have different consensus mechanisms I’d say. Less robust consensus mechanisms I would say. But no, that’s super interesting to see all of the innovation going on, not only in the financial aspects, but the energy Bitcoin mining side of things too.

Preston Pysh (24:49):

Talk to us about here’s another thing that I find interesting about you and your dad is this idea of concentrated investing. You hear some really greats through the decades that talk about this idea where, and I think Buffett has a pretty famous quote of saying that, “You have a pretty small amount of eggs that are in the basket and then you watch that basket really closely.” What are some of your thoughts around this idea of concentrated investing that you’d like to tell people?

Bill Miller IV (25:17):

Yeah, I think that’s how massive amounts of wealth is made is through concentration. It’s not through diversifying into different asset classes that’ll do 8% or 8% with some level of specified volatility and put all kinds of constraints around what could happen. But at the same time, concentration does come with risk.

Bill Miller IV (25:38):

But if you can find something at a very small size that could grow, that has a great management team, again, that we can talk about all these characteristics potential for high returns on capital and eventual moat, natural monopoly type characteristics, anything like that, and you want to ride that as far as you can. So long as you’re not going to be left in a position where if it goes back to some other… If it collapses or something doesn’t go your way, you’re not going to be broke or something.

Bill Miller IV (26:03):

But concentrated investing is if you look at actually the market and the history of the market, it’s actually a very small number of stocks that drive the overwhelming amount of returns in the market and the overwhelming number of stocks in the market at any given time underperform the index they’re in over their lifetime index. So, if you get concentrated and you buy… Most of the things you buy are probably not going to do very well. So you got to find the stuff that makes sense, but if you find it, you want to stick with it for sure.

Preston Pysh (26:35):

When you go to college and you study finance or you get an MBA, they throw around the term risk and it’s almost like there’s an equal sign to volatility. And that’s just it. That’s just the law, risk equals volatility. I tend to think that when I hear the word risk in volatility, I think that’s for a money manager, that’s for somebody who’s managing somebody else’s money who is entrusting them to do smart things with it and they’re risking losing that person as a client because there’s too much volatility in their portfolio.

Preston Pysh (27:12):

When I think about the volatility in a… Or I’m sorry. When I think about the risk in a company, it’s the competitive moat like you had said, right? That’s the thing that is there going to be impairment to the underlying assets that sit on that company’s balance sheet. That’s the risk to the business and the risk to maybe their market premium and whether they’re going to continue to have free cash flows into the future and all that kind of stuff. So risks should be based around a really deep analysis on the underlying assets and how they sit in a competitive environment, but it’s almost like that’s not even discussed in college. How in the world does that not get discussed? It’s about volatility and betas and this and that. It’s just-

Bill Miller IV (27:59):

All right. All right. Well, things that go up a lot are going to be volatile too, by definition.

Preston Pysh (28:03):

By definition. Yeah.

Bill Miller IV (28:05):

So that’s important to keep in mind. But yeah, no, if you think about investing, it’s an optimization problem. And a lot of these people that want to bucketize things and put things into these unique categories, all they really do is constrain their outcomes and optimization problems generally do better with fewer constraints, right? At the same time, it gives you more opportunity to do something dumb. But the whole Mean Variance Portfolio Theorem, I think it misses a lot of… I think there’s underlying assumptions about it and I’m sure academics will tell me I’m wrong on this, but you think about the whole premise there and you got to hit this rate of return because you got to draw down some portion of fund or you need a big portion of it at a given time.

Bill Miller IV (28:48):

If you don’t need the money in a year or two years, why are you carrying about the volatility of that in the short term? Right? And so if you can do well on something volatile over the long term, it makes a lot of sense to just sit in it and not think too much about it or try and trade it. As we said earlier, the big money’s made in the big moves and in sitting, not in trying to trade stuff around and create tax liabilities, and then you got to spend time figuring out that, managing your gains and losses.

Preston Pysh (29:20):

And that’s a good highlight that you had there as well, which is if you know you’re going to need whatever amount in a year from now, well then you have to think about that volatility a whole lot more than if you’re buying stuff like Bitcoin and you plan on owning it until the cows come home because you’re not trading it.

Bill Miller IV (29:40):

Not a trade.

Preston Pysh (29:41):

I appreciated that correction. I really did. Talk to us about this idea of dematerialization and about institutions, very important institutions through the years and how so many of them are being dematerialized.

Bill Miller IV (29:59):

Super interesting. And it’s all being driven I think by technology and the accessibility of information. Now we can get educations online for free. I mean, it’s all out there if people want to learn. Right? And so at the end of the day, I think schools are becoming more behavioral management organizations rather than actually needing to provide the education. And if you just think about, let’s go to schools, you talked about organizations broadly, let’s touch on schools. I’m a big believer in education. My whole family is a big believer in education. I spent a lot of money and time at good schools, did post school education through CFA, CMT, got to learn every day in what we do. So I’m a big believer in it. I just think that when you look at the core role, it’s evolving a little bit and the cost of a college education has gone up.

Bill Miller IV (30:54):

I think it roughly three times the rate of CPI over the past three decades. And so that’s not sustainable. And so I think a lot of these schools have become victims in a way of their own success. And what happens is over the years, people will go to these schools and they were centralized locations for learning in times when this kind of information wasn’t accessible more broadly on the internet. And so, people would go to these schools to learn and they’d learn a lot of stuff. And some people would be very successful and earn a lot of money and they’d give it back to the schools rightly so because the schools helped them learn what the knowledge that allowed them to generate fungible means. And so they would give it back to the school.

Bill Miller IV (31:41):

It made a lot of sense. And then that process just continued and continued and continued and still continues today to the point now where a lot of these schools just have such large pools of resources that they don’t necessarily need. It attracts certain types of people that don’t necessarily care about tangible outcomes in all kinds of different ways. Right?

Bill Miller IV (32:03):

And so this then just feeds on itself in a way over time. And interestingly enough now, people can get their educations online if they really want to. And these schools are still great filtering or sieve mechanisms to get you to… You know if somebody went to a really good school, they probably studied hard and there’s some floor on their IQ or capability set or something, I think. But it’s interesting to see how this evolves. And by the way, this is coming from someone that highly values education. But I think right now that one of the implications for our investors is that there’s probably going to be a lot of money made in educational pursuits online.

Preston Pysh (32:48):

Yeah. The dematerialization of the status quo of learning, if you will.

Bill Miller IV (32:53):

Right.

Preston Pysh (32:54):

Yeah. And this is another one on Michael Saylor’s big things that he’s really working on is how do I dematerialize the cost of education? Because I can warp myself through space and time and gain access to some of the best professors on the planet for whatever the subject might be. It’s funny there’s this app. It’s dragon something that my son, who’s very young, is there learning algebra. He has no clue how to do algebra.

Preston Pysh (33:31):

All he knows is when I match this picture, inverse this picture or whatever, he’s learning the rules and the process of algebra. And then they just swapped out the pictures with numbers and there he is doing algebra. It was somewhat crazy to witness. He doesn’t understand why or how, but he’s conditioning his brain through these apps. And I think that’s just one small example of so many things you can do in the education space, moving forward. And people paying a quarter of a million dollars for an education. And it’s like, my God, you can learn a majority of this for literally nothing online if you just have the-

Bill Miller IV (34:10):

Put your mind to it.

Preston Pysh (34:11):

If you put your mind to it and you have the drive and desire. Right? All right. Final question here for you. What’s up with you and your dad with the firm? Is he retiring soon? Is he slowly phasing out from doing it? What’s going on? Because he hasn’t been on the show for a while.

Bill Miller IV (34:33):

No. He’s trying to just pursue his own intellectual pursuits and he’s doing a lot more philanthropic stuff and thinking about that. And yeah, he’s becoming increasingly less involved in the day to day management of the funds. I’d say he’s still actively involved, but he’s not doing as much as he used to and he’s not doing it around the clock like he used to.

Preston Pysh (35:00):

Can he hang it up?

Bill Miller IV (35:01):

No, I think he’s always going to be looking for the next big idea for sure.

Preston Pysh (35:07):

Yeah.

Bill Miller IV (35:08):

For sure. So he’s never really going to hang it up. I totally agree with you on that point.

Preston Pysh (35:13):

Does he-

Bill Miller IV (35:14):

But he is looking to…

Preston Pysh (35:15):

Does he become more lethal as he’s more focused on only a couple things?

Bill Miller IV (35:22):

Yeah, actually it’s a very good point. That’s a massively important point. Focus matters, for sure. And no, he’s just looking to turn it over to the next generation. So I’m excited to actually take in a little bit of a different direction here just because I think technology is now at a point and the investment landscape is at a point where you can do some really interesting things and level the field I would say for the retail guy and actually help them understand more what an active investor is doing, why they’re doing it.

Bill Miller IV (35:51):

You can see new types of products that have daily transparency, right? So people can actually see what you did yesterday and maybe you can let them know why you did it yesterday, which you couldn’t do for a retail crowd before. The mutual fund thing is shrinking slowly every single year as the data shows. And I think there’s an opportunity to launch a platform here where you can better help the retail investor to think about active investing and where it fits into their portfolio and their financial planning space. And there’s just a ton of really good content out there. I don’t know if you read The Psychology of Money.

Preston Pysh (36:28):

No, I haven’t read that.

Bill Miller IV (36:32):

I thought I put one around. I know I have one on this shelf. This book, Morgan Housel, The Psychology of Money.

Preston Pysh (36:38):

Okay.

Bill Miller IV (36:38):

Great, great.

Preston Pysh (36:39):

Oh, I’ll have to pick up that up.

Bill Miller IV (36:40):

Great book. You have to read that. I’ll send you a copy for having me.

Preston Pysh (36:45):

I’ll have it. Yeah. I’d love to have it.

Bill Miller IV (36:47):

Yeah. Yeah. Cool. But that kind of stuff, you can even take the contents in that book or the ideas and boil them down and do them in a different format and do some pretty cool stuff on the media side of things. So we are actively hiring for people that can help with that kind of thing and produce that content.

Preston Pysh (37:07):

Oh, cool. That’s awesome. Okay. All right, Bill. Well, I mean, thank you so much for coming on the show. Like I said in the intro there, we should have done this a long time ago and it’s just been a pleasure knowing you and your dad through the years. And it was awesome seeing you down in Florida.

Bill Miller IV (37:24):

Super cool.

Preston Pysh (37:25):

That was really quite interesting. And it was even more interesting that when I bumped into you, I was there with Tuur Demeester.

Bill Miller IV (37:32):

Yes.

Preston Pysh (37:32):

I mean, come on. That’s just so serendipitous because I know, oh, was it probably back in 2017, your dad reached out to me and he was like, “Hey, do you know Tuur?” And I was like, “Yeah, let me introduce you to him.” And so those two linked up, and then you and I just happened to bump into each other down in Florida and there’s Tuur at the same time. It’s just wild.

Bill Miller IV (37:53):

So cool.

Preston Pysh (37:54):

So neat. That’s just crazy.

Bill Miller IV (37:56):

Yeah. I had a great conversation with Michael and all kinds of fascinating Bitcoin topics. That was super cool.

Preston Pysh (38:02):

I mean, that was the first time I met Michael when we were down there and having interviewed him, just meeting him in person like, oh my God, he is beyond smart.

Bill Miller IV (38:17):

He’s awesome.

Preston Pysh (38:19):

Just so nice. And just so nice and just easy to talk to. Just a great guy.

Bill Miller IV (38:24):

But I learned a ton that day. It was super cool.

Preston Pysh (38:27):

Yes. All right. Well, thanks for coming on, Bill. And we’ll have the links to all at your handle on Twitter and also the company and the firm and all of that. Is there anything else that you wanted to highlight before we wrap it up?

Bill Miller IV (38:40):

No, I had a great time. Thanks for having me on. Let’s do it again.

Preston Pysh (38:42):

Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. So, all right. Thanks so much, Bill.

Bill Miller IV (38:46):

Thanks, Preston. It’s great. Thanks again.

Preston Pysh (38:49):

If you guys enjoyed this conversation, be sure to follow the show on whatever podcast application you use, just search for We Study Billionaires. The Bitcoin specific shows come out every Wednesday, and I’d love to have you as a regular listener. If you enjoyed the show or you learned something new or you found it valuable, if you can leave a review, we would really appreciate that. And it’s something that helps others find the interview in the search algorithm. So anything you can do to help out with a review, we would just greatly appreciate. And with that, thanks for listening and I’ll catch you again next week.

Outro (39:22):

Thank you for listening to TIP. To access our show notes, courses or forums, go to theinvestorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only. Before making any decisions, consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by The Investor’s Podcast Network. Written permissions must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.

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