TIP760: DOLLAR DOMINANCE DECLINE

W/ LYN ALDEN

TIP760: DOLLAR DOMINANCE DECLINE W/ LYN ALDEN

11 October 2025

In this episode, Stig Brodersen welcomes back one of the most insightful voices in global macroeconomics, Lyn Alden. In this wide-ranging conversation, they explore the shifting landscape of the U.S. dollar and its role in a rapidly changing world.

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IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

  • Whether we’re moving from a US dollar system to a three-polar currency system
  • The relationship between the fiscal deficit and the US dollar
  • Why the US dollar may not go back to the strength it had in 2022 any time soon. 
  • How to use US dollar sanctions (if at all) to achieve your goals. 
  • Whether the US effectively implements capital controls 
  • What would happen is that the Fed lost its independence
  • Can the fiscal budget effectively balance? 
  • How to think about investing in high-quality equity investing in an era of fiscal dominance

TRANSCRIPT

Disclaimer: The transcript that follows has been generated using artificial intelligence. We strive to be as accurate as possible, but minor errors and slightly off timestamps may be present due to platform differences.

[00:00:02] Stig Brodersen: With the US dollar shaping so much of the global economy. It seems timely to explore where the world’s for reserve currency might be heading. As you learn this episode with the always thoughtful Lyn Alden. One thing to keep in mind is that the dollar dominance may be given way to a more multipolar currency system.

[00:00:19] Stig Brodersen: At the same time, the US is facing persistent fiscal deficits and questions about the Fed’s independence. In this conversation, Lyn and I discussed the dollar’s outlook, the impact of sanctions and capital control, and how investors can position themselves in an era of fiscal dominance. If you are stuck in investor concerned about the global macro backdrop, this is an episode you don’t want to miss.

[00:00:45] Intro: Since 2014 and through more than 180 million downloads, we’ve studied the financial markets and read the books that influenced self-made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Now for your host, Stig Brodersen.

[00:01:09] Stig Brodersen: Welcome to The Investor’s Podcast. I’m your host, Stig Brodersen, and today I’m back here with Lyn Alden. Lyn, how are you today?

[00:01:18] Lyn Alden: I’m good. How are you?

[00:01:19] Stig Brodersen: I’m good. And thank you for making time. It’s been way too long since we last chatted and my apologies, I should say.

[00:01:25] Lyn Alden: Well, I’m happy to, always happy to come back on.

[00:01:28] Stig Brodersen: So, Lyn, I’m going to put you a bit on the spot here with the very first question. So, Rogoff came out with this book, our Dollar, your Problem. And he argues that the US dollar has passed its peak dollar dominance. And so he would be the first to say that it’s clear that the US dollar will still be very important, but the footprint is likely to decline.

[00:01:50] Stig Brodersen: And so he predicts that the Euro and the MBI will increasingly have a share of, global reserve trade invoicing, fiscal transactions and so on. And share that more with the US dollar. And so you can think about this as moving toward a three pole currency system, if you like. And so, like I said here, I’m going to put you a bit on the spot here.

[00:02:11] Stig Brodersen: Whenever I say, do you agree? But I wanted to paint a bit more color around it. I know it’s a not so modest question whenever I ask you how would the fiat system look like in, in 10 years? But I wanted to use that also, to set the scene and tee off the rest of the outline, give a broad overview of what we may be looking at.

[00:02:28] Lyn Alden: Yeah, it sounds good. So, I mean, based on the description I largely agree with it. I haven’t read his book, but I’ve been aware of his arguments before and I’ve been making similar kind of observations for the past five or six years about kind of this more tripolar or multipolar world that we seem to gradually be shifting toward.

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