TIVP083: SPACEX (SPCX): IS IT REALLY WORTH $2 TRILLION DOLLARS?

W/ KYLE GRIEVE & SHAWN O’MALLEY

TIVP083: SPACEX (SPCX): IS IT REALLY WORTH $2 TRILLION DOLLARS? W/ KYLE GRIEVE & SHAWN O’MALLEY

15 July 2026

In today’s episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley analyze SpaceX’s blockbuster 2026 IPO, dissecting the company’s three segments: Space, Connectivity, and AI. They’ll also look at its history, moats, capital allocation, debt, and incentive structure. They’ll stress-test SpaceX’s aggressive $28.5 trillion total addressable market claim and walk through the key risks facing the business, from key-man dependence to regulatory exposure.

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IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

  • Why its claimed market opportunity may be overstated
  • How Elon Musk’s early rocket failures almost sank SpaceX
  • How Space, Connectivity, and AI segments actually work
  • Why reusable rockets are reshaping launch economics
  • Whether the AI segment is worrisome
  • What’s really driving Connectivity’s improving margins
  • How to think about SpaceX’s R&D and capital spending
  • Why SpaceX’s debt picture is more nuanced than it looks
  • How Musk’s pay package ties to Mars and market cap benchmarks
  • What risks could derail the SpaceX growth story
  • Whether SpaceX’s valuation can be justified by the numbers
  • And so much more!

For the full show notes, go to this page.

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