RWH062: BUBBLE WARNING

W/ JIM GRANT

RWH062: BUBBLE WARNING W/ JIM GRANT

25 October 2025

In this episode, William Green chats with Jim Grant, famed editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer—a must-read publication for elite investment professionals. Here, Jim warns that a “major market top” is “in formation,” with irrational exuberance driving up prices for everything from stocks to Bitcoin to gold. Jim, a financial historian who has covered markets for over 50 years, says the current investment environment reminds him of perilous periods like the late-‘90s dotcom bubble. His advice? Proceed with extreme caution.

SUBSCRIBE

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

  • Why Jim Grant is fiercely skeptical about Bitcoin. 
  • Why you should be wary of all the hype about Private Equity.
  • Why Jim expects the AI boom to end in “a panic & a crash.”
  • Why even the shrewdest speculators never know when it’s time to sell.
  • What the Federal Reserve is likely to do with interest rates.
  • Why the dollar seems poised to continue losing value.
  • Why inflation will persist, fueled by perennial flaws in human nature.
  • Why Jim loves gold but is starting to worry about its meteoric rise.
  • Why he owns some bonds, despite his grim prognosis for this asset class. 
  • How bull markets attract sleazy salesmen & bear markets clear them away.
  • What inspired him to write a new book about two 18th-century heroes.
  • How studying history helps him appreciate some benefits of modern life.

TRANSCRIPT

Disclaimer: The transcript that follows has been generated using artificial intelligence. We strive to be as accurate as possible, but minor errors and slightly off timestamps may be present due to platform differences.

[00:00:03] William Green: Hi everyone. I’m delighted to be back with you again on the Richer, Wiser, Happier podcast. Today’s episode is an important, timely, and extremely thought-provoking conversation with Jim Grant. Jim, who’s a cult figure in Elite Investment Circles, is the renowned founder and editor of Grants Interest Rate Observer, a biweekly publication that he’s edited since 1983.

[00:00:27] William Green: These days, it costs the best part of $2,000 a year for a subscription. So it’s not cheap, but it’s widely recognized as an invaluable source of unconventional insights for sophisticated investors. Nassim Taleb, who’s not an easy man to impress, has written that Jim Grant thinks outside the box. Please read him.

[00:00:47] William Green: Listen to him. David Swensen, who ran Yale University’s endowment with huge success for decades once remarked that Grant’s interest rate observer is on the must read list of every serious student of markets. One reason for Jim’s stellar reputation is that he draws deeply on his knowledge of financial history to issue early warnings about brewing storms that many investors fail to recognize until it’s too late.

[00:01:15] William Green: He’s never been afraid to point out the wretched excesses of Wall Street. Those moments when speculative fads get out of hand and when unscrupulous investment firms. A selling draws that’s dangerous to the financial health of careless or credulous investors. In 1999, for example, at the height of the dot com bubble, Jim warned that it was one of the most perilous periods in investment history and that America was dangling by a thread.

[00:01:44] William Green: Financially speaking a few years later, he was one of the first people to warn about the dangerous mortgage securities that led to catastrophe in the global financial crisis of 2008 to 2009. In the years after the financial crisis, he presciently warned that the federal reserve’s monetary policies would inevitably spark runaway inflation.

[00:02:04] William Green: So what’s Jim saying today? Well, as you’re about to hear, he argues quite forcefully that prudent investors would be wise to exercise considerable caution at the moment, given the heightened risks and speculative behavior that he’s observing, as Jim sees it at this point in October, 2025, there are many unsettling symptoms of euphoria, recklessness, folly, and corruption in financial markets these days, all of which he sees as potential warning signs of what he calls a major market top.

[00:02:36] William Green: Now, the reality is I have no idea if Jim’s right, and he’s not sure either. After all, markets are inherently unpredictable and it’s also more or less impossible to get the timing right, even if you’re smart enough or lucky enough to predict a major shift in market sentiment. This reminds me of a discussion I had with Howard Marks in chapter three of my book, Richard Weiser, Happier.

[00:02:58] William Green: Howard told me, I don’t even think about the timing in the investment business. It’s very hard to do the right thing he said, and it’s impossible to do the right thing at the right time. That said, I think it’s well worth listening when someone is shrewd and seasoned, as Jim Grant warns, that we should be treading with extra care.

[00:03:17] William Green: At the very least, it’s worth asking yourself if you are overexposed to risks that you can’t afford to be taking. As Howard Mark said to me, it’s not about selling everything and suddenly going to cash. It’s more about preparing for an uncertain future by asking yourself if you are pushing the envelope too far.

[00:03:35] William Green: For example, if you have too much debt or leverage, or if too much of your money is tied up in speculative assets that might be dangerously overvalued for battle hardened survivors like Grant, Marks, and Howard, I think one of the great lessons of financial history is that reckless, excess and overconfidence is eventually punished, so it’s important not to get too carried away during outbreaks of what seemed to be a rational exuberance on an entirely different note.

[00:04:04] William Green: I also wanted to take this opportunity to let you know that I’m launching a new, richer, wiser, happier Masterclass on November 21st. This is a chance to study directly with me over the course of a year as part of a very small group that’s capped at a maximum of 20 people. We’ll meet once a month over Zoom, and also at a couple of unique in-person events.

[00:04:25] William Green: Last year, the masterclass drew an incredibly accomplished group of 20 people from, I think seven different countries, including some very successful hedge fund managers, wealth advisors, asset allocators, managers of single family offices, CEOs, and entrepreneurs. The people who’ve signed up for the new masterclass are equally impressive, and we only have a few spots left.

[00:04:47] William Green: So if you are interested, please do email my friend and fellow podcast host Kyle Grieve as soon as possible, and he can send you more details. His email address is kyle@theinvestorspodcast.com, that’s kyle@theinvestorspodcast.com. The masterclass is designed specifically for people who are serious investors and passionate learners, and who are really looking to build lives that are truly richer, wiser, and happier.

[00:05:13] William Green: So if that sounds like you, I’d love to hear from you and would be thrilled to have the opportunity to study with you over the coming year. And now back to the show.

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