TIP059: STEPHEN COVEY’S 7 HABITS OF HIGHLY EFFECTIVE PEOPLE

W/ PRESTON & STIG

30 October 2015

In this episode, Preston and Stig explain how they now look at the current market conditions after the best month for stocks in 4 years. Preston and Stig will also be talking about their favorite book recommendation for students and potential business leaders: 7 Habits of Highly Effective People that have sold more than 25 million copies.

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IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

  • Why Preston, Stig, and Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle think the expected return in the stock market is 4%.
  • Why the historic stock market rally in October 2015 doesn’t change Preston and Stig’s fundamental opinion about the market.
  • A brief discussion of each of the 7 habits of highly effective people.
  • Which of the 7 habits that is the most important.

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TRANSCRIPT

Disclaimer: The transcript that follows has been generated using artificial intelligence. We strive to be as accurate as possible, but minor errors and slightly off timestamps may be present due to platform differences.

Preston Pysh  01:04

Hey, how’s everybody doing out there? This is Preston Pysh. I’m your host for The Investor’s Podcast. as usual, I’m accompanied by my co-host, Stig Brodersen, out in Denmark.

Preston Pysh  01:13

Today, we got a book that we’ve summarized and we’re going to be talking about, and it’s a really popular book. The name of the book is “The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People.” And this is written by Stephen Covey. This one’s going on to probably set a lot of records as far as a book sale. So, this is a really popular book, if you’ve never heard of it. It gives out some really, really concrete guidance.

Preston Pysh  01:39

So, before we get to the book, what we’re going to really discuss is the current market conditions because Stig and I haven’t done this for a while. There have been some really interesting things happening in the market. It was funny. I checked on the forum and for anybody that knows me personally, they know that I’ve had a very, very busy schedule lately. I really have not had a lot of time to focus on my investments, the podcasts, and things like that. Even though we’re rolling out episodes, I’m really struggling to keep pace with my current schedule these days.

Preston Pysh  02:10

So, one of the comments on the forum was hilarious. One of the people in the forum said, “Preston’s been really quiet lately.” And I love the comment because somebody was calling me out because of how the market has been. Stig and I are recording this episode on the 30th of October, just because some of our episodes had a little bit of a lag. Maybe a week or two.

Preston Pysh  02:31

At the end of October, it was probably one of the strongest months on record in the history of the stock exchange. You can look up these facts here. I don’t know if it was the strongest month on record, but it’s very close to being the strongest record month. To be honest with you folks, if I had to call that, or in August after we saw the market make a 10% correction in August, I would have never, in a million years, thought that we would have such a strong October.

Preston Pysh  03:04

And most of that opinion was based on the fact that I thought that the third-quarter earnings were going to come in and be very weak. That was going to drive multiple slower, which is how stocks are traded. But we saw our expectations basically play out, concerning the earnings. The earnings came in extremely weak, which was a result of the dollar, which Stig and I have been talking about for a while.

Preston Pysh  03:25

But the market went in the exact opposite direction. So, what’s important here is that we have no idea what’s going to happen in the short term. We can expect certain things like we expected the dollar to be extremely strong and to have an enormous impact on earnings in the United States. That happened. We saw that play out.

Preston Pysh  03:45

But what we didn’t see was the subsequent expectation that we had, and this was very clear that you have to understand that’s an expectation. That doesn’t mean that it’s going to happen. We don’t know that was going to happen, but we expected multiples to trade lower with those lower earnings calls. You didn’t see that happen.

Preston Pysh  04:01

What you really saw play out, and this is the way that the market reacted to the circumstances as the dollar got weaker, because the Federal Reserve made the decision to basically extend their dovishness on raising rates, and they kicked it out to November. We now know that they’re going to kick it out to December. So, that change in the Federal Reserve policy made the dollar weaker, which then changed the expectations for the coming quarter, where people made the market go much higher.

Preston Pysh  04:32

So, that was something that I can tell you that totally would have… If I was betting on odds, I wouldn’t totally bet against that. But that just shows you how you cannot make decisions based on what the Feds are going to do next or any of that stuff.

Preston Pysh  04:49

What you have to make decisions on is what yield am I going to get based on the current market prices? And that’s how Stig and I have been talking about this from day one. So, whenever we look at the current market conditions, and we say the Shiller PE is at 26 or 27. That means we expect that you could get a 4% return by owning stocks or equities in the US market specifically. That’s the thing that people need to know. That’s what you need to prepare for. That’s where we’re saying, we think that there’s risk in the current market conditions. That is not a big return at all. You have to be prepared to get that return over the next 10 years if you’re buying into the stock market today.

Preston Pysh  05:30

That’s what we’re saying. That’s what we’re pushing. We don’t know if it’s going to go up or down. We’ve been saying that since day one. But you do have to realize that there is an enormous risk whenever you’re buying stocks, and the prices are high because that means your yield is actually lower.

Stig Brodersen  05:47

Yeah. Interestingly, you talk about yield because of Jack Bogle, the founder of Vanguard. He has been talking about a 4% yield in the years to come. He has this little formula that he uses. He’s saying that he starts with the present dividend yield. This is around 2% at the moment, then he adds the expected earnings growth, and he estimated that to be approximately 5%. So, that would be a 7% total. Then he’s looking at the current PE ratio, and he’s talking about the current PE, and not the Shiller PE. But he’s saying that’s around 20 at the moment, and he assumes they will come down to the story average, which is around 15. So, he deducts 3% for what he calls speculative returns.

Stig Brodersen  06:29

So, he has this very simple equation, which is 7% minus 3%. If you’re saying “If you invest your money in the stock market right now, you can expect 4%.” then he says, “Remember there’s a thing called inflation. I know that we don’t have that much right now. But remember, we have a tax that is called inflation, aside from that you have to pay normal tax, of course.” The thing was very interesting, to hear that from Jack Bogle because he is really a gentleman who knows what he’s talking about.

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