TIP824: COPA HOLDINGS (CPA): IS BUFFETT RIGHT ABOUT AIRLINE STOCKS?

W/ DANIEL MAHNCKE & SHAWN O’MALLEY

TIP824: COPA HOLDINGS (CPA): IS BUFFETT RIGHT ABOUT AIRLINE STOCKS? W/ DANIEL MAHNCKE & SHAWN O’MALLEY

17 June 2026

Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley take a deep dive into Copa Holdings — the Panama-based hub-and-spoke airline whose investment case now turns on two of the most debated questions in the stock today: whether Copa is a structural exception to the airline curse — protected by a geography no rival can copy and a cost base only a handful of carriers in the world can match — or whether even the best airline in the Americas eventually gets pulled into the same gravity that has destroyed value for nearly every other carrier.

Some investors believe Copa is a structural exception the market consistently underprices because it’s lumped in with the broader sector, with a Panama hub at the geographic center of the hemisphere that lets it serve 85 destinations using nothing but single-aisle 737s, a sub-6¢ ex-fuel cost base only Ryanair, Wizz Air, and a couple of others can match, a 99.8% completion rate that turns the “missed flight” tax hammering other carriers into one of Copa’s structural cost advantages, and a 38-year CEO who has refused to expand into Europe or chase growth at any price.

Join Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley as they work through whether Copa’s hub-and-spoke economics are genuinely uncopiable or just holding off the gravity that has eventually captured nearly every other airline, examine what Copa’s structural advantages actually look like in 2026 versus the “all airlines destroy capital” narrative the market still anchors to, and assess whether Copa Holdings deserves a spot in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.

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IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

  • Why airlines are such a tough business to be in
  • What Buffett and other superinvestors think
  • Why Copa is different than other airlines
  • How Copa built its moat
  • How Copa can defend its moat
  • How being the best-in-class business can change the investors’ outcome
  • Whether Copa is valued attractively
  • Whether Shawn and Daniel add CPA to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio
  • And much, much more!

Disclosure: This episode and the resources on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. For full disclosures, see link.

TRANSCRIPT

Disclaimer: The transcript that follows has been generated using artificial intelligence. We strive to be as accurate as possible, but minor errors and slightly off timestamps may be present due to platform differences.

[00:00:03] Shawn O’Malley: Daniel, you’ve done it again. You got me looking at an industry that I don’t want to look at. It’s something Buffett would not approve. So you need to explain yourself. Why are we looking at an airline today?

[00:00:13] Daniel Mahncke: You know, I’m the value guy. I got to do it because I know you won’t. And Buffett actually keeps buying airlines. So I feel pretty good with, you know, him having my back.

[00:00:20] Shawn O’Malley: I just never fully understood why, though. It’s so well documented that airlines are just historically bad businesses, and yet Buffett can’t stop buying them.

[00:00:30] Daniel Mahncke: Well, not all of them are that bad, right? I mean, there are these airlines actually in all of those industries. They are outliers that are best in class operators. And I do think I found one. So I thought, you know, I got to pitch it.

[00:00:41] Shawn O’Malley: All right. Well I’m intrigued. We’re supposed to be talking about Copa today. So should we do it.

[00:00:45] Daniel Mahncke: Let’s go.

[00:00:49] Intro: Since 2014, with more than 200 million downloads. We have interviewed the world’s best investors, studied deeply the principles of value investing, and uncovered many compelling investment opportunities. We focus on understanding businesses and intrinsic value, investing accordingly and sharing everything we learn with you. This show is not investment advice. It’s intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed by hosts and guests are solely their own, and they may have investments in the securities discussed. Now for your host, Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahncke.

[00:01:35] Shawn O’Malley: We pride ourselves on looking at just about any industry. Sooner or later on this show. But there are some industries that are just generally in our too hard pile to begin with. And I realize again and again that with healthcare companies, that those businesses just fall right into that bucket for me.

[00:01:51] Shawn O’Malley: And, you know, another industry I usually have on my blacklist is the airline industry. And I, you know, I’d say they have deservedly earned one of the worst reputations in all of value investing, right? I mean, decades of bankruptcies, brutal, brutal price competition, almost no pricing power and, you know, truly enormous fixed costs. But I’m sure you wouldn’t have brought today’s company as a pitch if you didn’t think the economics were different for them.

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